Step 1 of 3
Crude oil, WTI, monthly average
US$98Oct 2026
A reading path through recorded links, not a forecast. Effects along a chain are never added or multiplied.
Step 1 of 3
The price of crude oil moves
West Texas Intermediate, the North American benchmark.
Computed from the dataWTI crude oil averaged US$98 a barrel in October 2026, against US$60 a year earlier. Since 2015 the monthly average has ranged from US$17 in April 2020 to US$115 in June 2022.
Established mechanism
A central bank, agency or published study describes how this works. It does not say how large the effect is.
Reviewed by Hamza Abdi Evidence strength: moderate. Direction: moves the same way.
The Bank of Canada says persistent disruptions to oil supply from the Gulf region have led to a sharp increase in crude oil prices, and that the war in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries have led to a persistent increase in energy prices. Statistics Canada reported that crude oil prices rose in September 2026, to their highest level since May, amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East. These are institutional assessments of the 2026 episode, not estimates of how much of the price move the conflict explains.
- Limits
- Episode-specific institutional assessment; the share of the price move due to the conflict is not estimated. The Bank names attacks on Russian refineries alongside the war, and other supply and demand factors also move oil prices.
- Timing
- The record gives no lag for this link.
- Source
- Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026, Current conditions
Persistent disruptions to oil supply from the Gulf region have led to a sharp increase in crude oil prices.
Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026, In focus: Factors behind the rise in long-term sovereign bond yieldsThe war in the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries have led to a persistent increase in energy prices.
Statistics Canada: The Daily: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released 19 October 2026)Crude oil prices increased in September, reaching their highest level since May amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East, resulting in higher prices for gasoline and fuel oil.
Source: World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Crude oil, WTI, updated November 03, 2026. CC BY (version per the Bank licence page); no changes to values.
Step 2 of 3
Fuel prices usually follow
Gasoline in the Consumer Price Index.
Computed from the dataGasoline prices in the CPI rose 27.8% over the 12 months to September 2026. A year earlier the 12-month change was −4.1%. Since 2015 it has ranged from −39.3% in April 2020 to 62.5% in April 2021.
Established mechanism
A central bank, agency or published study describes how this works. It does not say how large the effect is.
Reviewed by Hamza Abdi Evidence strength: strong. Direction: moves the same way.
Crude oil prices are the major driver of gasoline prices, the Library of Parliament says, and the Bank of Canada says higher wholesale prices are quickly reflected at the pump. Statistics Canada said crude oil prices rose in September 2026, resulting in higher prices for gasoline and fuel oil, and that the switch to the less expensive winter blend of gasoline moderated the increase.
- Limits
- Retail gasoline prices also reflect refining margins, retail margins, taxes and seasonal blends, so they do not move one-for-one with crude. In 2026 the Bank of Canada says elevated refinery margins have pushed up fuel prices further than the rise in crude oil prices alone would suggest, and the federal excise tax on gasoline was suspended from 20 April 2026 to 31 January 2027. The sources describe gasoline and fuel oil, not other consumer energy such as electricity. No size of pass-through is claimed.
- Timing
- The record gives no lag for this link.
- Source
- Library of Parliament: Gasoline Prices in Canada: What Causes Variation? (HillNote, 17 August 2026)
Crude oil prices are the major driver of gasoline prices
Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026, In focus: Refinery margins and the persistence of energy inflationLike higher crude oil prices, rising refinery margins raise inflation immediately because higher wholesale prices are quickly reflected at the pump.
Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026, In focus: Refinery margins and the persistence of energy inflationElevated refinery margins have pushed up fuel prices further than the rise in crude oil prices alone would suggest
Statistics Canada: The Daily: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released 19 October 2026)Crude oil prices increased in September, reaching their highest level since May amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East, resulting in higher prices for gasoline and fuel oil. Year over year, prices for gasoline rose at a faster pace in September (+27.8%) compared with August (+22.8%). Moderating the increase in gasoline prices in September was the switch to the less expensive winter blend.
Also observed: correlation
These have moved together. That alone says nothing about cause.
Computed from published data.
Correlation by lag in months Lag none 3 months 6 months 12 months r 0.87 0.63 0.41 −0.03 Overlapping 12-month windows make observations serially dependent, so no significance test is reported. Other drivers act at the same time; correlation is not causation. Daily series are reduced to month-end values.
Source: Adapted from Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted, Table 18-10-0004-01. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada.
Step 3 of 3
Headline inflation feels it
All-items consumer prices, change over 12 months.
Computed from the dataConsumer prices rose 3.1% over the 12 months to September 2026. A year earlier the 12-month change was 2.4%. Since 2015 it has ranged from −0.4% in May 2020 to 8.1% in June 2022.
Established mechanism
A central bank, agency or published study describes how this works. It does not say how large the effect is.
Reviewed by Hamza Abdi Evidence strength: strong. Direction: moves the same way.
The Bank of Canada said in October 2026 that CPI inflation had stayed close to 3% over the past six months, largely reflecting higher gasoline prices, and that excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September and measures of core inflation remained close to 2%. Statistics Canada reported that the CPI rose 3.1% over the 12 months to September and that gasoline led the acceleration.
- Limits
- An accounting-style statement about the composition of recent inflation, not a forecast of persistence. On 28 October 2026 the Bank raised its policy rate to reduce the risk that high energy prices spread broadly to other prices.
- Timing
- The record gives no lag for this link.
- Source
- Bank of Canada: Monetary Policy Report, October 2026, Current conditions
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation has stayed close to 3% over the past six months, largely reflecting higher gasoline prices.
Bank of Canada: Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½% (28 October 2026)Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September and measures of core inflation remain close to 2%.
Statistics Canada: The Daily: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released 19 October 2026)The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% year over year in September, following a 3.0% increase in August. The acceleration was led by higher prices for gasoline in September (+27.8%) compared with August (+22.8%). Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2%, after increasing 2.4% in August.
Bank of Canada: Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½% (28 October 2026)Governing Council decided to increase the policy rate to reduce the risk that continuing high energy prices spread broadly to the prices of other goods and services.
Source: Adapted from Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, monthly, not seasonally adjusted, Table 18-10-0004-01. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada.