Toronto

Toronto among the six largest metros

Toronto's population of 7.1 million did not grow in the year to July 2025: the change was 0.0%, the weakest of the six. The reason shows in the migration series. Net moves to the rest of Ontario were -65 thousand, net non-permanent residents -45 thousand and net interprovincial migration -13 thousand persons in the twelve months from July 2024, the largest outflows of the six, while immigrants numbered 115 thousand, the largest inflow.

The labour market is improving from a high base of unemployment. The unemployment rate was 7.1% in October 2026, down from 8.6% a year earlier, the largest fall of the six, ahead of Edmonton's and Calgary's, and employment is 1.9% above a year ago, third of six. The employment rate of 62.2% is fourth of six.

Housing: prices falling, supply still arriving

New-home prices changed -4.9% in the twelve months to September 2026, the largest fall of the six, yet 88,108 homes were under construction, the most of the six and more than Vancouver's 61,680, and builders started 1,440 homes that month. Two-bedroom rents in purpose-built buildings averaged C$2,045 in the October 2025 survey, second highest after Vancouver, with a vacancy rate of 3.0%. Consumer prices rose 2.1% in the twelve months to September 2026, the lowest of the six.

Output

Gross domestic product at basic prices was C$522.4 billion in 2022, the largest of the six, 28.9% above five years earlier in current dollars. Manufacturing shipments in August 2026 were 11.6% above a year earlier.

What it means for decisions

For a builder or lender, falling new-home prices with a very large pipeline under construction is the central fact; the data cannot say how many of the units are for sale, for rent or already sold. For a business, the customer base did not grow in the year to July 2025, and the labour market has improved since. For a household, rents are second highest of the six and inflation is the lowest.

What the data cannot say: they do not show resale prices, wages, the type of units under construction or the reasons for the fall in non-permanent residents; the survey is a sample. Nothing here is a forecast.

1. Jobs: 3.8 million people are employed, the largest of the six large metros, 1.9% more than a year ago; unemployment is 7.1%. The employment rate, 62.2%, is 4th of 6 among the six. Labour

2. Prices: inflation is 2.1%, 6th of 6 among the six metros. The city index is held here for all items only. Prices

3. People: the population changed 0.0% in the year to July 2025, 6th of 6 among the six metros. Over the later four quarters to 1 July 2026 Ontario grew 0.3% against 1.5% in Alberta. Population

4. Housing: new-home prices changed -4.9% in the twelve months to September 2026 and -8.5% since February 2022, with 88,108 homes under construction. CMHC says Toronto still needs to raise annual starts by at least 50%. Housing

5. Industry: manufacturing shipments were C$12.7 billion in August 2026, the largest of the six metros, up 11.6% on a year earlier. Petroleum products are only 2.5% of them. Industry

6. Connections: oil prices and Toronto employment are associated to about the same degree as in Calgary (r = 0.37), which shows how little that test can tell. Connections

What happened

At basic prices and in current dollars, the Toronto economy produced C$522.4 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table, equal to 52.9% of Ontario's total of C$987.8 billion. Among the six large metropolitan areas it ranked 1st of 6 by size.

Measured in current dollars, output was 85.0% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 18.1% higher than in 2019. Ontario as a whole was 77.2% higher than in 2009 and 18.5% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 the other metropolitan areas grew 72.4% in Calgary, 54.6% in Edmonton, 98.1% in Vancouver, 75.3% in Montréal and 61.1% in Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part).

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

Why it matters

GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is and how its share of the provincial total compares, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

History

The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

Across geographies

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

Risks

The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Toronto.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Toronto's unemployment rate was 7.1% in October 2026 and employment was 3.8 million, 1.9% on a year earlier. The metropolitan population changed 0.0% in the year to July 2025, against 2.9% in Calgary and 3.1% in Edmonton. Housing starts over the twelve months to September 2026 were 23,355. The average two-bedroom rent in purpose-built rental apartments was C$2,045 in the October 2025 survey, with a vacancy rate of 3.0%, up from 2.5% the year before.

Why it happened

Why it matters

History

Toronto's unemployment rate has ranged from 5.3% (January 2020) to 15.1% (July 2020) over ten years.

Across geographies

Among the six large metropolitan areas Toronto's latest population change ranks 6th of 6.

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 2.7 million jobs were located in the Toronto metropolitan area. Professional, scientific and technical services accounted for 13.8% of them, health care and social assistance 11.1% and retail trade 10.5%. Finance and insurance was 9.3%, manufacturing 9.5%, transportation and warehousing 5.0%, construction 3.7% and public administration 4.6%.

Today the unemployment rate (three-month average) is 7.1% for October 2026, employment is 3.8 million, the participation rate is 66.9% and the employment rate is 62.2%. Among the six large areas Toronto's unemployment rate is level with Edmonton's and Ottawa-Gatineau's as the highest, at 7.1%; the others are Montréal 6.9%, Vancouver 6.7% and Calgary 6.6%. Census shares are a 2021 snapshot of where people work, not a list of employers; the rest of this section uses organisations' own statements to say what sits behind them.

Why it happened

Finance, professional services and offices

Technology and artificial intelligence

Manufacturing and autos in the wider region

Pearson airport, the port and goods movement

City economic strategy and Toronto Global

Why it matters

Office market

Immigration and reliance on non-permanent residents

Housing affordability and the condominium downturn

History

Across geographies

Labour data for Hamilton and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo are in their own reports; Oshawa and the other Greater Golden Horseshoe areas are not held, so the wider-region claims rest on the sources named in each paragraph. Toronto Global's "Toronto Region", the airport's economic zone, the real estate board's GTA and the City differ from the CMA and from one another.

What it influences

Transit and infrastructure megaprojects

Employers expanding and contracting

Structural challenges

Risks

What to watch

Medium- and long-term prospects, as the sources frame them, depend on identifiable things. The airport's early-2030s passenger expectation depends on land and terminal investment. The Ontario Line and the Crosstown extension depend on construction milestones that Metrolinx reports; the sources cited give no current opening date. Office demand depends on how return-to-office mandates compare with new supply, which the City expects to be limited in 2027 to 2029. The labour market depends on the federal-provincial auto and steel measures and on the course of US tariffs. The 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan, released on 5 November 2026, sets the national targets for the next three years, and Statistics Canada's monthly labour survey, CMHC starts and the next population estimates will show which way these go.

Not covered by the sources cited, and so not described here: Toronto-CMA wages by industry, a Toronto largest-employer ranking, Toronto Global's funding and results, the City's manufacturing strategy outcome, CN and CPKC intermodal volumes, Port of Hamilton volumes, Pearson's own annual economic-impact study, Ontario Line total cost and opening date, and Oshawa labour data.

What happened

Toronto's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 7.1% in October 2026, from 8.6% a year earlier. Calgary's was 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9% and Ottawa–Gatineau's 7.1%. Employment of 3.8 million is 1.9% higher than a year ago, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.2% in Vancouver and -0.9% in Montréal.

The participation rate is 66.9% and the employment rate 62.2% (4th of 6 among the six areas, against 66.7% in Calgary and 63.4% in Vancouver).

By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Toronto at 3.7 million in 2025, a change of 1.8% on the year before and of 10.5% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 15.8% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 84.2%; among the individual groups, professional, scientific and technical services 14.4%, wholesale and retail trade 13.6%, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing 12.2% and manufacturing 9.3% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted; the monthly metropolitan rates above are three-month averages and are noisier than the annual figures. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

Why it happened

The data show where Toronto stands, not why. Two comparisons are informative. Since the end of 2019 employment is up 10.9% in Toronto, 27.1% in Calgary and 11.8% in Vancouver. Toronto's employment rate is below Calgary's and Vancouver's even though its job count has grown; the data held here cannot say why.

Why it matters

Toronto's labour market is the largest of the six metropolitan areas in the data. Its employment rate ranks 4th of 6; how many residents work matters for household income and local demand.

History

Over ten years Toronto's unemployment rate has averaged 7.5%, with a high of 15.1% in July 2020 and a low of 5.3% in January 2020.

Across geographies

Toronto's rate minus Calgary's is 0.5 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Ontario's unemployment rate is 7.3% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages.

What it influences

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the Toronto region. The relationship explorer lists the national and provincial links that reach the city, each with its evidence class.

Risks

Not assessed: the exposure of Toronto's employment to particular industries or to US demand. The annual industry employment shown above describes the mix of jobs, not exposure.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

What happened

Toronto's consumer prices were 2.1% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, against 3.4% in Calgary, 3.5% in Edmonton, 3.0% in Vancouver and 3.0% in Montréal, and 3.1% for Canada. Toronto's rate is 6th of 6 among the six metropolitan areas.

Why it happened

Why it matters

Toronto's rate is below the national rate. The CPI measures changes in prices, not their level, so a low rate of change says nothing about how expensive the city is.

History

Toronto's rate has averaged 2.7% over ten years and peaked at 7.5% in July 2022.

Across geographies

Toronto's rate minus Canada's is -1.0 percentage points. All five other metropolitan areas have higher rates than Toronto.

What it influences

Inflation bears on wage bargaining, the policy rate and mortgage renewals; those links are national and not measured for Toronto.

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to Toronto specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; the national risks are energy prices and tariffs (see the Canada report).

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly Consumer Price Index release (calendar).

What happened

The Toronto metropolitan area had 7.1 million residents on July 1, 2025, a change of 0.0% from a year earlier. Over five years it grew 9.5%, against 20.1% in Calgary and 15.8% in Edmonton. In the latest year the rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 2.3% in Ottawa–Gatineau, 0.5% in Montréal and 0.2% in Vancouver.

Why it happened

This is the provincial and national explanation for the year to July 2026; the metropolitan population estimates end in July 2025, before that year's record fall in non-permanent residents, so they cannot show it. The components of the metropolitan change are shown below.

In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Toronto metropolitan area recorded 64 thousand births and 41 thousand deaths, 115 thousand immigrants, a net change of -45 thousand non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of -13 thousand and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of -65 thousand. The year before, immigrants numbered 128 thousand and the net change in non-permanent residents was 228 thousand. Net non-permanent residents averaged 85 thousand a year over the latest five demographic years.

Why it matters

Population growth adds workers and households, which can add to demand for housing and services. A population that is not growing bears on the demand side of the housing section below.

History

Over ten years Toronto's population grew 17.6%.

Across geographies

Ontario's population grew 0.3% over the four quarters to 1 July 2026, against 1.5% in Alberta; Ontario's net change in non-permanent residents over the same four quarters was -86 thousand. These are provincial figures.

What it influences

Risks

Not assessed: the effect of the federal immigration levels plan on Toronto specifically.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's quarterly provincial and annual metropolitan population estimates and the federal levels plan.

What happened

Toronto started 23,355 homes over the past twelve months and completed 26,691. At the end of September 2026, 88,108 were under construction, -4.2% on a year earlier, by far the largest pipeline of the six areas (Vancouver 61,680, Montréal 34,558, Calgary 26,252). Over the same twelve months Vancouver started 26,601 and Montréal 27,474.

The New Housing Price Index for Toronto is 105.0, -4.9% on a year ago and -8.5% since February 2022. Vancouver's index changed -2.1% over the year and -3.6% since February 2022; Calgary's 0.0% over the year.

In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Toronto was C$2,045 a month, 3.7% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figure for the Greater Toronto Area, for structures surveyed in both years, is 3.5%) and 24.9% higher than five years earlier, ranking 2nd of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 3.0%, from 2.5% a year earlier, ranking 9th of 14 among the fourteen (against 4.9% in Calgary, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

Why it happened

The data show a very large construction pipeline alongside falling new-home prices.

Why it matters

Housing is a large household expense.

History

Building permits for the metropolitan area totalled C$29.3 billion over the twelve months to August 2026, +8.6% on the twelve months before. Residential permits were 60.1% of the value in August 2026. The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 109,104 in July 2023.

Across geographies

On the six-city comparison, units under construction changed over the twelve months to September 2026 by -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver, 9.2% in Montréal and 4.0% in Edmonton. The gap estimates in CMHC's summary table differ widely: Toronto 20,000 to 26,000 units a year, Vancouver 5,000 to 7,000, Montréal 42,000 to 56,000, Calgary 4,000 to 5,000 and Edmonton no measurable housing supply gap.

What it influences

The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Toronto.

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index and building permits (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

What happened

Toronto manufacturing shipments were C$12.7 billion in August 2026, 11.6% above a year earlier and 23.0% above December 2019, against 16.1% over the year in Montréal, 21.2% in Vancouver and 46.6% in Edmonton. Petroleum and coal product manufacturing was 2.5% of the Toronto total, against 58.8% in Edmonton, so Toronto's manufacturing is not a refining story.

Building permits (all types) totalled C$29.3 billion over the twelve months to August 2026, +8.6% on the twelve months before.

Why it happened

Why it matters

Toronto is the largest manufacturing metropolitan area in the data and also the largest labour market among the six. Ontario's goods exports go mainly to the United States, but the metropolitan data cannot show how much of Toronto's manufacturing depends on that demand.

History

Toronto's manufacturing shipments peaked at C$13.6 billion in May 2023, the highest in the past ten years.

Across geographies

As provincial context only: in 2025, 72% of Ontario's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States, and energy products were 1% of the total. Ontario's workers are employed 6.6% in finance and insurance, 11.1% in professional, scientific and technical services and 7.0% in construction (shares of employment, 2025); Alberta's finance share is 3.5%. These are provincial shares and must not be read as describing Toronto.

What it influences

Toronto's manufacturing and construction activity feed local employment and incomes. The explorer shows Ontario's export exposure to the United States, derived from the trade data above, and an observed association between exports to the United States and manufacturing sales; none is a measured effect on Toronto.

Risks

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly manufacturing survey and merchandise trade releases (calendar).

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 2.7 million jobs were located in the Toronto metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Professional, scientific and technical services (13.8% of jobs), Health care and social assistance (11.1%) and Retail trade (10.5%).

Measured as its share of jobs divided by the other five metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Toronto's jobs), the sector in which Toronto stood furthest above the rest was Finance and insurance: 9.3% of its jobs, against 4.5% in Calgary, 4.0% in Edmonton, 5.4% in Vancouver, 5.4% in Montréal and 3.5% in Ottawa–Gatineau.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Toronto's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

Why it matters

The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

History

Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

Across geographies

The six metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are shares of jobs located in the area, not of residents' employment, and not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Ontario is not described here.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

Risks

What to watch

The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

The one Toronto-specific quantity in the relationship graph is the association between the WTI oil price and metropolitan employment: for 12-month changes the correlation is 0.37 at lag zero and 0.19 when employment is compared six months later. The same measure is 0.37 for Calgary and 0.41 for Edmonton.

Why it happened

Why it matters

Toronto's connections to the world run mostly through channels this report measures only at provincial or national level: US demand for Ontario's exports, interest rates and the exchange rate. The Global report shows each of these at the country level.

History

Not assessed for Toronto.

Across geographies

Interest rates: on 5 November 2026 the US ten-year yield was 4.84% and Canada's 3.67%; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate is 6.19% (which rose 0.10 percentage points over the past year).

What it influences

Three chains bear on Toronto: from US trade measures to Ontario manufacturing (a published provincial assessment, with no size given), from policy and bond rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally for the policy rate, an observed correlation for bond yields), and from immigration policy to population (documented nationally) and rental vacancy (documented for the Greater Toronto Area, with no measured size).

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, the next US tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly releases; see the calendar.