Kitchener–Waterloo

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo: a busy labour market, a population barely growing

The population grew only 0.3% in the year to July 2025, the slowest of the eight metropolitan areas in this group. The cause shows in the migration figures: net non-permanent residents changed -7,365 in the latest annual figure, which is -10.5 per 1,000 residents, the largest outflow of the fourteen metropolitan areas in the library and well beyond Toronto's -6.3. Immigrants numbered 9,820, the second most of the eight, and net interprovincial migration was -1,546.

Jobs: high participation, high unemployment

The labour force is highly engaged: the participation rate of 70.2% is the highest of the eight and the employment rate of 65.2% the second highest. Employment grew 1.7% on a year earlier. Yet the unemployment rate is 7.1%, the third highest of the eight after London's 8.1% and Hamilton's 7.6%, though down from 7.6% a year earlier. A high participation rate means that more of the population is in the labour market, whether working or looking for work, so it can coexist with high unemployment.

Housing and output

New-home prices changed -2.0% against a year earlier. 6,820 homes were under construction, 9.7 per 1,000 residents, in the lower half of the fourteen, and only 112 were started in the latest month.

Gross domestic product at basic prices was C$40.3 billion in 2022, up 37.6% in five years in current dollars, second only to Halifax among the eight.

What it means for decisions

For an employer, there is a large pool of people seeking work in a metropolitan area with unusually high participation. For a builder or lender, population is not the driver it is in Saskatoon or Regina, and new-home prices are falling. For a household, the data show a city whose population has almost stopped growing as non-permanent residents leave.

What the data cannot say: they do not say who the non-permanent residents were or why they left, nor whether the slowdown in population growth will continue. Nothing here is a forecast.

1. Jobs: 390 thousand people are employed, 1.7% against a year ago; unemployment is 7.1%. The employment rate, 65.2%, is 2nd of 8 among the eight metropolitan areas in this group. Labour

2. Prices: new-home prices changed -2.0% in the twelve months to September 2026. There is no metropolitan consumer price index. Prices

3. People: the population changed 0.3% in the year to July 2025. Net non-permanent residents changed -7,365 in the latest demographic year. Population

4. Housing: new-home prices changed -2.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 6,820 homes under construction. Housing

5. Output: the economy produced C$40.3 billion in 2022. Output The industry mix from the 2021 Census is in Industry.

6. Connections: the links that reach Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo are national or provincial, and none is measured for the city. Connections

What happened

At basic prices and in current dollars, the Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo economy produced C$40.3 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table. Measured in current dollars, output was 92.6% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 20.1% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 Hamilton grew 70.9%, Calgary 72.4%, Edmonton 54.6%, Toronto 85.0%, Vancouver 98.1% and Montréal 75.3%. Ontario's real GDP was 13.3% higher in 2025 than in 2019, before the pandemic; that is a different measure (market prices at 2017 constant prices, province) and is not comparable with the metropolitan current-dollar figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

Why it matters

GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

History

The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

Across geographies

The metropolitan series are comparable with each other because they come from one table with one definition and one price basis. Levels depend on city size; use growth rates for comparison.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

Risks

The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's unemployment rate was 7.1% in October 2026, against 7.6% in Hamilton, 8.1% in London and 7.1% in Toronto, and employment was 390 thousand, 1.7% on a year earlier.

The Statistics Canada estimate of the metropolitan population on 1 July 2025 was 702 thousand, a change of 0.3% on the year before, against 11.7% over the three years to that date. The net change in non-permanent residents in the latest demographic year was -7,365. Over the past twelve months 3,715 homes were started, and the average two-bedroom rent in purpose-built rental apartments was C$1,816 in the October 2025 survey, with a vacancy rate of 4.0%, from 3.5% a year earlier.

Why it happened

Why it matters

In the Census, jobs located in the metropolitan area were 16.1% manufacturing, 10.8% professional, scientific and technical services and 6.9% finance and insurance in May 2021. Hamilton's manufacturing share was 11.5% and London's 11.2%, so manufacturing is a larger share of local jobs here than in either Ontario peer.

The annual Labour Force Survey shows manufacturing employment of 69 thousand in 2025, 26.0% above 2021, and professional, scientific and technical services at 49 thousand, 51.7% above 2021. Both grew; the survey is a sample, so single-year moves in a sector of this size are imprecise.

History

Employment in the metropolitan area has changed 19.7% since December 2019, and the metropolitan population 17.8% over five years. The unemployment rate has ranged from 4.2% (September 2018) to 13.1% (June 2020) over ten years.

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The Region plans to re-baseline its population models after the 2026 Census, which will show whether the metropolitan and Regional counts converge. CMHC's forecast of a vacancy rate of 4.5 per cent in 2026 can be tested against the October 2026 Rental Market Survey, and Statistics Canada's quarterly and annual population estimates show whether the net outflow of non-permanent residents continues. Not held here: metropolitan wages, a consumer price index for the metropolitan area, tech-sector layoffs or funding totals for the region, and a metropolitan estimate of tariff-exposed jobs.

What happened

Employment in the metropolitan area was 390 thousand in October 2026, 1.7% on a year earlier, the unemployment rate was 7.1%, the employment rate 65.2% and the participation rate 70.2% (three-month averages, Statistics Canada). The last published metropolitan GDP at basic prices, in current dollars, was C$40.3 billion for 2022, 37.6% above five years earlier before any adjustment for prices.

Why it happened

The 2021 Census counted 246 thousand jobs located in the area. Manufacturing was 16.1% of them, health care 11.3%, retail trade 11.1%, professional, scientific and technical services 10.8%, educational services 9.8% and finance and insurance 6.9% (counted at the workplace in May 2021, under public-health restrictions). Manufacturing's share is above Hamilton's (11.5%) and London's (11.2%).

Why it matters

The annual Labour Force Survey shows which industries grew. Total employment was 389 thousand in 2025, 2.0% on 2024 and 20.7% on 2021. Manufacturing employment was 69 thousand, 7.1% on the year, 26.0% on 2021. Professional, scientific and technical services were 49 thousand (51.7% on 2021), information, culture and recreation 19 thousand (58.5%) and health care 41 thousand (23.0%). Among the industries that fell in 2025 were educational services (-8.4%) and construction (-12.5%), after construction had risen in 2024.

History

Across geographies

What it influences

Housing. Over twelve months 3,715 homes were started, 4,545 completed, and 6,820 were under construction in September 2026. The new housing price index (total, house and land) was 150.4, -2.0% on a year earlier. Rents and vacancy are shown in the survey series: the two-bedroom average was C$1,816 in 2025, 3.9% on the year (CMHC's same-sample figure, for structures surveyed in both years, is 3.3%), with vacancy at 4.0%, from 3.5% a year earlier. In Hamilton the rent was C$1,659 and in London C$1,645.

Investment and infrastructure

Risks

What to watch

Funding decisions on ION Stage 2, the October Rental Market Survey against CMHC's forecast vacancy rate, the monthly Labour Force Survey and Statistics Canada's July population estimate will show how these play out. Not held here: metropolitan wages, metropolitan GDP by industry or for any year after 2022, a ranking of the largest local employers, a metropolitan count of tariff-exposed jobs, and any count of technology-sector layoffs or venture funding for the region.

What happened

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 7.1% in October 2026, from 7.6% a year earlier. For comparison, Hamilton's was 7.6%; among the six large metropolitan areas: Calgary's 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Toronto's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9%, Ottawa–Gatineau's 7.1%. Employment of 390 thousand changed 1.7% over the year, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.9% in Toronto and 1.2% in Vancouver.

The participation rate is 70.2% and the employment rate 65.2%, against 66.7% in Calgary, 62.2% in Toronto and 63.4% in Vancouver. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here (Winnipeg, Halifax, Québec, Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Saskatoon, Regina) its employment rate ranks 2nd of 8.

By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo at 389 thousand in 2025, a change of 2.0% on the year before and of 20.8% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 25.3% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 74.7%; among the individual groups, health care and social assistance 10.6%, wholesale and retail trade 13.3% and manufacturing 17.8% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

Why it happened

The data show where Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo stands, not why. Since the end of 2019 employment has changed 19.7% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, 4.8% in Hamilton, 27.1% in Calgary and 10.9% in Toronto; the data held here cannot say why those paths differ.

Why it matters

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand. The employment rate says more than the unemployment rate about how much of the adult population is working, because people who stop looking for work leave the unemployment count.

History

Over ten years Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's unemployment rate has averaged 6.6%, with a high of 13.1% in June 2020 and a low of 4.2% in September 2018. The Labour Force Survey series for the metropolitan area start in 2011 for employment and participation (earlier months are not held).

Across geographies

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's rate minus Hamilton's is -0.5 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Ontario's unemployment rate is 7.3% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages.

What it influences

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the region. No link from Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's employment to another variable is measured here.

Risks

Not assessed: the exposure of Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's employment to particular industries or to US demand over time, beyond what the annual industry employment shown above describes; that table does not measure exposure to US demand.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

What happened

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's new housing price index changed -2.0% over the twelve months to September 2026, against -4.0% in Hamilton, -4.9% in Toronto and 0.0% in Calgary, and 5.1% over five years. National consumer price inflation was 3.1% in September 2026.

Why it happened

The series show the change, not its cause. No source cited in this section explains Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's new-home price movement; the local-economy section of this page states what the published sources say about the city's housing market.

Why it matters

A new-housing price index follows the price of a constant-quality new home and so excludes resale homes and rents. It is a partial view of housing costs. Because there is no city CPI, nothing here says how fast the cost of living in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo is rising.

History

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's index has changed 53.5% over ten years. Index levels are not comparable between cities because each is set to its own base.

Across geographies

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's index is on its own base, so its level cannot be compared with another city's; only the twelve-month changes in the first paragraph can, and they cover new homes only.

What it influences

Not assessed: the sources cited in this section do not link new-home prices in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo to other outcomes, and no measured link is recorded for the city.

Risks

Not assessed: the risks that published sources attribute to Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo are in the local-economy section of this page; this section holds only the index.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly New Housing Price Index release and the Consumer Price Index release (CPI dates are in the calendar).

What happened

The Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo metropolitan area had 702 thousand residents on July 1, 2025, 0.3% more than a year earlier. Over five years it grew 17.8%, against 7.3% in Hamilton, 20.1% in Calgary and 9.5% in Toronto. In the latest year the growth rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 0.0% in Toronto, 0.2% in Vancouver and 0.5% in Montréal. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here it ranks 4th of 8 by population.

Why it happened

In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo metropolitan area recorded 6,932 births and 4,315 deaths, 9,820 immigrants, a net change of -7,365 non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of -1,546 and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of 490. The year before, immigrants numbered 9,281 and the net change in non-permanent residents was 27 thousand. Net non-permanent residents averaged 12 thousand a year over the latest five demographic years.

Why it matters

Population growth adds workers and households. A fast-growing metropolitan area can need more housing, schools and services, and it also gains consumers. Over five years Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's growth was 17.8%.

History

Over ten years Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's population grew 32.3%, and since 2001 it has grown 56.9%. The components of change are available from 2001.

Across geographies

On Statistics Canada's revised series, the provincial population grew 0.8% in the year to July 2025 and 0.3% in the four quarters to 1 July 2026; net interprovincial migration for Ontario over the four quarters to Q2 2026 was -18 thousand. The metropolitan area's own net interprovincial migration is among the components above.

What it influences

Population growth bears on housing demand, labour supply and public service needs. Those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next annual metropolitan population estimates and quarterly provincial estimates.

What happened

Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo started 3,715 homes over the past twelve months and completed 4,545. At the end of September 2026, 6,820 were under construction, -7.8% against a year earlier (Hamilton 6,733, Toronto 88,108, Vancouver 61,680, Calgary 26,252).

The New Housing Price Index for Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo is 150.4, -2.0% on a year ago and -4.7% since February 2022. Hamilton's index changed -4.0% over the year, Vancouver's -2.1% and Toronto's -4.9%. Index levels are not comparable across cities because each is indexed to its own base.

The value of building permits (all types, seasonally adjusted, current dollars) over the twelve months to August 2026 was C$2.1 billion, -20.1% on the twelve months before; the series starts in 2018.

In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo was C$1,816 a month, 3.9% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figure, for structures surveyed in both years, is 3.3%) and 41.1% higher than five years earlier, ranking 5th of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,045 in Toronto, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 4.0%, from 3.5% a year earlier, ranking 2nd of 14 among the fourteen (against 4.9% in Calgary, 3.0% in Toronto, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

Why it happened

The data show how much is being built and what is happening to new-home prices; they do not separate demand, land and construction costs, interest rates and incomes. Posted mortgage rates are national. Since the first week of January 2026 the posted five-year rate has changed by +0.10 percentage points and the posted one-year rate by -0.35 percentage points, to 6.19% and 5.49% in the week of 28 October 2026 (see the Canada report).

Why it matters

Housing is a large household expense. New-home prices are one part of the picture: resale prices are not included, and the rent figures above cover purpose-built rental structures only.

History

The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 8,777 in January 2023, and the lowest was 3,062 in August 2018.

Across geographies

On the comparison with the large cities, units under construction changed -7.8% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, -3.7% in Hamilton, -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver and 4.0% in Edmonton over the twelve months to September 2026. Counts depend on city size and are not rates per person.

What it influences

The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo.

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index and building permits (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 246 thousand jobs were located in the Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Manufacturing (16.1% of jobs), Health care and social assistance (11.3%) and Retail trade (11.1%).

Measured as its share of jobs divided by the six large metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's jobs), the sector in which Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo stood furthest above them was Manufacturing: 16.1% of its jobs, against 5.1% in Calgary, 6.4% in Edmonton, 9.5% in Toronto, 6.6% in Vancouver, 10.0% in Montréal, 3.4% in Ottawa–Gatineau. The ranking is fixed to these 2021 Census figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

Why it matters

The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

History

Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

Across geographies

The metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Ontario's provincial industry mix is on its province page.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

Risks

What to watch

The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

The recorded connections that reach Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo are provincial or national. Ontario's exposure to the United States is 72% of its goods exports in 2025 (total domestic goods exports C$266.0 billion), and energy products are 1% of that total; the national export shares are 72% to the United States and 4.5% to China.

Oil prices and metropolitan employment are compared in the relationship graph only for Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto; Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo is not compared.

Why it happened

Not assessed. Trade and investment links that published sources describe for Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo are in the local-economy section of this page; no city-level trade data are held.

Why it matters

The currency, interest rates and trade partners that matter for Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo are covered at national level in the Global report: one US dollar cost an average of C$1.4135 in October 2026; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate was 6.19% in the week of 28 October 2026, and it rose 0.10 percentage points over the year to then. The US ten-year Treasury yield was 4.84% on 5 November 2026 and Canada's ten-year yield 3.67% on 5 November 2026; how much of any move in either reaches Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's housing market is not measured here.

History

Not assessed.

Across geographies

What it influences

Three chains bear on Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, each national or provincial: US trade measures to exports (hypotheses nationally, with sourced provincial statements), rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally) and immigration policy to population (documented nationally).

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly trade release (calendar).