Hamilton

Hamilton: weaker on prices, jobs and arrivals

Hamilton looks weaker than most of its peers on housing and migration. New-home prices changed -4.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, the largest fall of the eight metropolitan areas in this group, ahead of Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's -2.0% and London's -1.9%. Builders began only 72 homes in September 2026, and 6,733 are under construction, 7.7 per 1,000 residents, the third lowest of the fourteen metropolitan areas in the library.

Arrivals are also modest. Immigrants numbered 7,006 in the twelve months from July 2024, 8.0 per 1,000 residents and the lowest of the fourteen. Net non-permanent residents changed -1,695 and net interprovincial migration -524. The population grew 1.0% in the year to July 2025.

Jobs: fewer employed, higher unemployment

Employment changed -0.8% against a year earlier, one of only three declines among the eight, and unemployment rose to 7.6% in October 2026 from 6.9% a year earlier. The employment rate of 60.7% is the second lowest of the eight. A sample survey for one metropolitan area can move for reasons that disappear in the next release.

Output

Gross domestic product at basic prices was C$44.1 billion in 2022, up 27.2% in five years in current dollars, the second slowest of the eight.

What it means for decisions

For a builder or lender, falling new-home prices and low starts together describe a market that is not expanding; for an employer, the numbers suggest more available workers than a year ago; for a household, resale prices are not held, so the data cannot show whether they are falling too.

What the data cannot say: they do not give resale prices, wages, or the industries behind the job losses; the 2021 Census industry mix is in the Industry section. Nothing here is a forecast.

1. Jobs: 445 thousand people are employed, -0.8% against a year ago; unemployment is 7.6%. The employment rate, 60.7%, is 7th of 8 among the eight metropolitan areas in this group. Labour

2. Prices: new-home prices changed -4.0% in the twelve months to September 2026. There is no metropolitan consumer price index. Prices

3. People: the population changed 1.0% in the year to July 2025. Net non-permanent residents changed -1,695 in the twelve months from July 2024. Population

4. Housing: new-home prices changed -4.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 6,733 homes under construction. Housing

5. Output: the economy produced C$44.1 billion in 2022. Output The industry mix from the 2021 Census is in Industry.

6. Connections: the links that reach Hamilton are national or provincial, and none is measured for the city. Connections

What happened

At basic prices and in current dollars, the Hamilton economy produced C$44.1 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table. Measured in current dollars, output was 70.9% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 17.3% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo grew 92.6%, Calgary 72.4%, Edmonton 54.6%, Toronto 85.0%, Vancouver 98.1% and Montréal 75.3%. Ontario's real GDP changed 13.3% from 2019 to 2025; that is a different measure (market prices at 2017 constant prices, province) and is not comparable with the metropolitan current-dollar figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

Why it matters

GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

History

The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

Across geographies

The metropolitan series are comparable with each other because they come from one table with one definition and one price basis. Levels depend on city size; use growth rates for comparison.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

Risks

The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Hamilton.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Hamilton's unemployment rate was 7.6% in October 2026, against 7.1% in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, 8.1% in London and 7.1% in Toronto. Employment was 445 thousand, -0.8% on a year earlier, so the unemployment rate is higher than in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Toronto and lower than in London, and employment is falling. The twelve months to September 2026 account for 2,334 of the 5,085 homes started over two years, and the new-housing price index changed -4.0% in the twelve months to September 2026. The average two-bedroom rent in the October 2025 survey was C$1,659, with a vacancy rate of 3.5%, up from 2.4% a year earlier. The net change in non-permanent residents was -1,695 in the twelve months from July 2024, after 9,210 the year before, on Statistics Canada's metropolitan estimates released 14 January 2026 (it revised its non-permanent resident estimates back to July 2021 in September 2026).

Why it happened

Why it matters

The steel firms are large employers but the metropolitan job base is wider. By the 2021 Census, health care and social assistance accounted for 15.8% of jobs located in the area, retail trade 12.0% and manufacturing 11.5%. Manufacturing is a larger share of jobs in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (16.1%) than in Hamilton, and about the same in London (11.2%).

History

Hamilton's unemployment rate has ranged from 3.5% (March 2019) to 13.0% (June 2020) over ten years, and the metropolitan population grew 14.2% over ten years. The Labour Force Survey's annual manufacturing employment was 50 thousand in 2011 and 46 thousand in 2025; survey estimates for a single metropolitan area are volatile from year to year (the 2024 value was 43 thousand), so no single year's change should be read as a trend.

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

Whether Stelco recalls its workers and what Ottawa does about the 2024 acquisition commitments, which the press reports include keeping unionized staff for five years; any ArcelorMittal Dofasco statement on where its iron will be made; the allocation of the announced steel funding; the Hamilton LRT target price; CMHC's autumn Rental Market Survey; and Statistics Canada's monthly Labour Force Survey and next population estimates. These are the publishers' forecasts and reports, not Northline's.

What happened

Hamilton's census metropolitan area had 871 thousand people on 1 July 2025, 1.0% on the year before. Employment was 445 thousand in October 2026 and the unemployment rate 7.6%. Its gross domestic product at basic prices was C$44.1 billion in 2022, the latest year Statistics Canada has published for the area.

Why it happened

By the 2021 Census, health care and social assistance was the largest industry among jobs located in the area (15.8% of 309 thousand), followed by retail trade (12.0%), manufacturing (11.5%), educational services (9.5%) and professional, scientific and technical services (9.2%). These are 2021 Census counts of jobs by place of work.

Why it matters

The Labour Force Survey's annual employment by industry for the area shows which sectors have grown since 2019. Health care and social assistance changed 8.6%, public administration 57.0%, construction 15.1% and manufacturing -9.0%, while accommodation and food services changed -19.2%, educational services 19.5% and agriculture -61.5%. Professional, scientific and technical services was 39 thousand in 2023, 48 thousand in 2024 and 41 thousand in 2025, a swing that shows how noisy single-area annual estimates are. The very large moves in public administration and agriculture are probably partly sampling noise, and even health care, the largest group, has moved by several thousand from one year to the next, so no one of these changes should be read as a trend.

History

The metropolitan population was 689 thousand in 2001 and 871 thousand in 2025, 14.2% higher than ten years earlier. In the twelve months from July 2024 births were 7,921 and deaths 7,619, so natural increase was small; immigrants numbered 7,006, net intraprovincial migration 5,083 and net interprovincial migration -524. Net non-permanent residents were 9,210 the year before and -1,695 in the latest year, on Statistics Canada's metropolitan estimates released 14 January 2026 (it revised its non-permanent resident estimates back to July 2021 in September 2026).

Across geographies

Hamilton's unemployment rate was 7.6% in October 2026, against 7.1% in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, 8.1% in London and 7.1% in Toronto. By census jobs, manufacturing is a smaller share in Hamilton (11.5%) than in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (16.1%), while health care is a larger one (15.8% against 11.3%), and London's mix (11.2% manufacturing, 17.4% health care) is close to Hamilton's.

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The Stelco dispute with Ottawa and any recall; ArcelorMittal Dofasco's statement on where it will make iron and what the federal funding now covers; the split of the announced steel funding; the Hamilton LRT target price and opening date; the 2026-2030 Economic Development Action Plan once published; CMHC's autumn Rental Market Survey against its forecast; the Statistics Canada population estimates for the area; and the Ministry of Finance's next projections. Not held here: metropolitan wages, GDP by industry or after 2022, a sourced employer ranking, an independent metropolitan outlook, and a Hamilton-specific figure for migration from Toronto.

What happened

Hamilton's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 7.6% in October 2026, from 6.9% a year earlier. For comparison, Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's was 7.1%; among the six large metropolitan areas: Calgary's 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Toronto's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9%, Ottawa–Gatineau's 7.1%. Employment of 445 thousand changed -0.8% over the year, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.9% in Toronto and 1.2% in Vancouver.

The participation rate is 65.7% and the employment rate 60.7%, against 66.7% in Calgary, 62.2% in Toronto and 63.4% in Vancouver. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here (Winnipeg, Halifax, Québec, Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Saskatoon, Regina) its employment rate ranks 7th of 8.

By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Hamilton at 442 thousand in 2025, a change of 2.1% on the year before and of 6.2% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 18.7% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 81.3%; among the individual groups, health care and social assistance 13.7%, wholesale and retail trade 16.4% and manufacturing 10.5% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

Why it happened

The data show where Hamilton stands, not why. Since the end of 2019 employment has changed 4.8% in Hamilton, 19.7% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, 27.1% in Calgary and 10.9% in Toronto; the data held here cannot say why those paths differ.

Why it matters

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand. The employment rate says more than the unemployment rate about how much of the adult population is working, because people who stop looking for work leave the unemployment count.

History

Over ten years Hamilton's unemployment rate has averaged 6.1%, with a high of 13.0% in June 2020 and a low of 3.5% in March 2019. The Labour Force Survey series for the metropolitan area start in 2011 for employment and participation (earlier months are not held).

Across geographies

Hamilton's rate minus Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's is 0.5 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Ontario's unemployment rate is 7.3% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages.

What it influences

Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the region. No link from Hamilton's employment to another variable is measured here.

Risks

Not assessed: the exposure of Hamilton's employment to particular industries or to US demand over time, beyond what the annual industry employment shown above describes; that table does not measure exposure to US demand.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

What happened

Hamilton's new housing price index changed -4.0% over the twelve months to September 2026 and -8.4% over five years; over the same twelve months the index changed -2.0% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, -4.9% in Toronto and 0.0% in Calgary. National consumer price inflation was 3.1% in September 2026.

Why it happened

The series show the change, not its cause. No source cited in this section explains Hamilton's new-home price movement; the local-economy section of this page states what the published sources say about the city's housing market.

Why it matters

A new-housing price index follows the price of a constant-quality new home and so excludes resale homes and rents. It is a partial view of housing costs. Because there is no city CPI, nothing here says how fast the cost of living in Hamilton is rising.

History

Hamilton's index has changed 7.5% over ten years. Index levels are not comparable between cities because each is set to its own base.

Across geographies

Hamilton's index is on its own base, so its level cannot be compared with another city's; only the twelve-month changes in the first paragraph can, and they cover new homes only.

What it influences

Not assessed: the sources cited in this section do not link new-home prices in Hamilton to other outcomes, and no measured link is recorded for the city.

Risks

Not assessed: the risks that published sources attribute to Hamilton are in the local-economy section of this page; this section holds only the index.

What to watch

Statistics Canada's monthly New Housing Price Index release and the Consumer Price Index release (CPI dates are in the calendar).

What happened

The Hamilton metropolitan area had 871 thousand residents on July 1, 2025, 1.0% more than a year earlier. Over five years it grew 7.3%, against 17.8% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, 20.1% in Calgary and 9.5% in Toronto. In the latest year the growth rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 0.0% in Toronto, 0.2% in Vancouver and 0.5% in Montréal. Among the eight smaller metropolitan areas covered here it ranks 3rd of 8 by population.

Why it happened

In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Hamilton metropolitan area recorded 7,921 births and 7,619 deaths, 7,006 immigrants, a net change of -1,695 non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of -524 and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of 5,083. The year before, immigrants numbered 7,230 and the net change in non-permanent residents was 9,210. Net non-permanent residents averaged 2,887 a year over the latest five demographic years.

Why it matters

Population growth adds workers and households. A fast-growing metropolitan area can need more housing, schools and services, and it also gains consumers. Over five years Hamilton's growth was 7.3%.

History

Over ten years Hamilton's population grew 14.2%, and since 2001 it has grown 26.4%. The components of change are available from 2001.

Across geographies

The provincial population grew 0.3% in the four quarters to 1 July 2026; net interprovincial migration for Ontario over the four quarters to Q2 2026 was -18 thousand. The metropolitan area's own net interprovincial migration is among the components above.

What it influences

Population growth bears on housing demand, labour supply and public service needs. Those links are national and not measured for the city.

Risks

What to watch

Statistics Canada's next annual metropolitan population estimates and quarterly provincial estimates.

What happened

Hamilton started 2,334 homes over the past twelve months and completed 2,456. At the end of September 2026, 6,733 were under construction, -3.7% against a year earlier (Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 6,820, Toronto 88,108, Vancouver 61,680, Calgary 26,252).

The New Housing Price Index for Hamilton is 106.4, -4.0% on a year ago and -8.9% since February 2022. Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo's index changed -2.0% over the year, Vancouver's -2.1% and Toronto's -4.9%. Index levels are not comparable across cities because each is indexed to its own base.

The value of building permits (all types, seasonally adjusted, current dollars) over the twelve months to August 2026 was C$2.2 billion, -14.0% on the twelve months before; the series starts in 2018.

In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Hamilton was C$1,659 a month, 1.4% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figure, for structures surveyed in both years, is 1.6%) and 28.4% higher than five years earlier, ranking 7th of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,045 in Toronto, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 3.5%, from 2.4% a year earlier, ranking 6th of 14 among the fourteen (against 4.9% in Calgary, 3.0% in Toronto, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

Why it happened

The data show how much is being built and what is happening to new-home prices; they do not separate demand, land and construction costs, interest rates and incomes. Since January 2026 the posted five-year mortgage rate has gone from 6.09% to 6.19% (week of 28 October 2026) and the posted one-year rate from 5.84% to 5.49%; see the Canada report.

Why it matters

Housing is a large household expense. New-home prices are one part of the picture: resale prices are not included, and the rent figures above cover purpose-built rental structures only.

History

The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 7,580 in February 2026, and the lowest was 2,576 in November 2016.

Across geographies

On the comparison with the large cities, units under construction changed over the twelve months to September 2026 by -3.7% in Hamilton, -7.8% in Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver and 4.0% in Edmonton. Counts depend on city size and are not rates per person.

What it influences

The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Hamilton.

Risks

What to watch

CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index and building permits (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

What happened

In the 2021 Census, 309 thousand jobs were located in the Hamilton metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Health care and social assistance (15.8% of jobs), Retail trade (12.0%) and Manufacturing (11.5%).

Measured as its share of jobs divided by the six large metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Hamilton's jobs), the sector in which Hamilton stood furthest above them was Manufacturing: 11.5% of its jobs, against 5.1% in Calgary, 6.4% in Edmonton, 9.5% in Toronto, 6.6% in Vancouver, 10.0% in Montréal, 3.4% in Ottawa–Gatineau. The ranking is fixed to these 2021 Census figures.

Why it happened

Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Hamilton's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

Why it matters

The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

History

Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

Across geographies

The metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Ontario's provincial industry mix is on its province page.

What it influences

Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

Risks

What to watch

The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

What happened

Most recorded connections that reach Hamilton are provincial or national. Ontario's exposure to the United States is 72% of its goods exports in 2025 (total domestic goods exports C$266.0 billion), and energy products are 1% of that total; the national export shares are 72% to the United States and 4.5% to China.

Oil prices and metropolitan employment are compared in the relationship graph only for Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto; Hamilton is not compared.

Why it happened

Not assessed. Trade and investment links that published sources describe for Hamilton are in the local-economy section of this page; no city-level trade data are held.

Why it matters

The currency, interest rates and trade partners that matter for Hamilton are covered at national level in the Global report: one US dollar cost C$1.4135 on average in October 2026; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate is 6.19%, which rose 0.10 percentage points over the past year. On 5 November 2026 the US ten-year Treasury yield was 4.84% and Canada's ten-year yield 3.67%; how much of any move in either reaches Hamilton's housing market is not measured here.

History

Not assessed.

Across geographies

What it influences

Three chains bear on Hamilton: US trade measures to exports and to steel jobs (hypotheses nationally, with sourced provincial statements, and a company statement for Hamilton with no measured size), rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally) and immigration policy to population (documented nationally).

Risks

The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

What to watch

The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly trade release (calendar).