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Atlas · YOW · Ontario

Ottawa–Gatineau

1,700,014 people, July 2025. Metropolitan area measures, beside the 13 other cities Northline covers.

Map of Canada with provincial boundaries. The 14 cities Northline covers are listed in the text.

Unemployment rateOttawa–Gatineau among 14 cities

Measure
2021202220232024202520262.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%7.1%Edmonton7.1%Ottawa6.7%Vancouver6.6%Calgary

Pin up to four cities

    Three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted. Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.

    Table view
    Latest value for each city.
    CityLatestPeriod
    London8.1%Oct 2026
    Hamilton7.6%Oct 2026
    Toronto7.1%Oct 2026
    Ottawa–Gatineau7.1%Oct 2026
    Edmonton7.1%Oct 2026
    Kitchener–Waterloo7.1%Oct 2026
    Montréal6.9%Oct 2026
    Vancouver6.7%Oct 2026
    Calgary6.6%Oct 2026
    Saskatoon5.9%Oct 2026
    Regina5.9%Oct 2026
    Halifax5.4%Oct 2026
    Winnipeg5.0%Oct 2026
    Québec4.5%Oct 2026

    Vital signs

    Ottawa–Gatineau in eight numbers

    Vital signs for Ottawa–Gatineau
    MeasureLatestPeriod and rank among 14 citiesContextTrend
    Unemployment rate7.1%Oct 2026, fourth highest of 14Ontario 7.3%, Canada 6.7% (monthly measures)
    Employment rate60.7%Oct 2026, twelfth highest of 14
    Consumer prices, 12-month change3.0%Sep 2026, tenth highest of 11Ontario 2.5%, Canada 3.1%
    Population1,700,014July 2025
    Population growth2.3%Year to July 2025, fourth highest of 14
    Housing starts, last 12 months14,228To Sep 2026, sixth highest of 14
    Average two-bedroom rentC$1,757October 2025, sixth highest of 14
    Rental vacancy rate3.1%October 2025, seventh highest of 14

    City figures are metropolitan-area measures. National and provincial unemployment rates are monthly, so they are close to but not the same measure as the three-month city averages.

    What it is built on

    Jobs by industry

    1. Public administration25.7% vs 7.1%
    2. Health care and social assistance12.9% vs 13.5%
    3. Professional and technical services10.7% vs 11.4%
    4. Retail trade10.0% vs 11.6%
    5. Educational services8.4% vs 8.3%
    6. Accommodation and food4.3% vs 4.9%
    7. Other services3.6% vs 4.0%
    8. Construction3.6% vs 4.0%
    9. Finance and insurance3.5% vs 6.3%

    Share of jobs by place of work, 2021 Census. The tick marks the 14 cities combined. Total jobs counted: 661,080.

    See Ottawa–Gatineau’s skyline in the Field

    Rates and housing here

    Where the ripple reaches Ottawa–Gatineau

    A reading path through recorded links, not a forecast. Effects along a chain are never added or multiplied.

    Follow the ripple

    Where to go next

    ServicesGet a full profileA sourced profile of Ottawa–Gatineau for a lender, board or council. StudioOpen in StudioA workspace prepared from these measures, with the gaps stated.
    YOW · Ottawa–Gatineau CMA · city dashboard

    The Ottawa–Gatineau economy: a government-centred region facing public-service cuts and a softening rental market

    Ottawa–Gatineau's economy rests on the federal public service, which the federal government says had shrunk nationally by nearly 10% from its 2023-24 peak by August 2026, at the same time as the region's rental vacancy rate has risen and its housing supply gap has widened. It does not cover wages by city or resale prices; the page lists what is missing.

    Analyze Ottawa–Gatineau in Intelligence Studio

    Opens a workspace prepared from the published Ottawa–Gatineau measures above, with the gaps stated.

    Ottawa–Gatineau versus Calgary in Studio → · Choose other places to compare →

    30 secondsRead the vital signs above; each measure links to its chart or section. Go to the indicators
    5 minutesRead the findings at the top, then the sourced story of what drives this economy. Go to the outlook
    20 minutesRead the local-economy section, then work through the charts and the relationships that reach the city. Go to the charts
    Ottawa–Gatineau at a glance

    What are the main things to know about Ottawa–Gatineau's economy right now?

    Ottawa–Gatineau had 868 thousand workers in October 2026, with unemployment at 7.1%; its housing starts, prices and population are covered in the sections below

    Graphic: Employment, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted: how 6 plac…Employment, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted: how 6 places compare. Toronto CMA 3.8 million;…

    Ottawa–Gatineau among the six largest metros

    Ottawa–Gatineau's labour market is among the softest of the six. The unemployment rate is 7.1%, level with Edmonton's and Toronto's as the highest of the six, and was 7.3% a year earlier, a much smaller fall than theirs or Calgary's. The employment rate of 60.7% is the lowest of the six. Employment is 0.9% above a year ago, fifth of six. The metropolitan area spans two provinces and a large federal workforce; the data here do not separate that workforce.

    Employment growth over twelve months, six metropolitan areasEmployment growth over twelve months, six metropolitan areas. Calgary 6.2%; Edmonton 3.0%; Toronto 1.9%; Vancouver 1.2%; Ottawa–Gatineau 0.9%; Montréal -0.9%.JOBSEmployment growth over twelve months, sixmetropolitan areasOttawa–Gatineau highlighted. Labour Force Survey, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted. Asample survey: small differences are not meaningful.1Calgary6.2%2Edmonton3.0%3Toronto1.9%4Vancouver1.2%5Ottawa–Gatineau0.9%6Montréal-0.9%6.2%Highest: Calgary-0.9%Lowest: MontréalSource: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0459-01. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada.NORTHLINE ECONOMICSDescriptive analysis; not advice or a forecast.
    The data behind this graphic
    Employment growth over twelve months, six metropolitan areas
    ItemValue
    Calgary6.2%
    Edmonton3.0%
    Toronto1.9%
    Vancouver1.2%
    Ottawa–Gatineau0.9%
    Montréal-0.9%

    Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

    The population grew 2.3% in the year to July 2025, third of six, with net interprovincial migration of 3,531 persons in the latest annual figure and net non-permanent residents of 2,922.

    Population growth over the latest yearPopulation growth over the latest year. Edmonton 3.1%; Calgary 2.9%; Ottawa–Gatineau 2.3%; Montréal 0.5%; Vancouver 0.2%; Toronto 0.0%.PEOPLEPopulation growth over the latest yearOttawa–Gatineau highlighted. Population estimates, July 1, 2021 boundaries.1Edmonton3.1%2Calgary2.9%3Ottawa–Gatineau2.3%4Montréal0.5%5Vancouver0.2%6Toronto0.0%3.1%Highest: Edmonton0.0%Lowest: TorontoSource: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0148-01. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada.NORTHLINE ECONOMICSDescriptive analysis; not advice or a forecast.
    The data behind this graphic
    Population growth over the latest year
    ItemValue
    Edmonton3.1%
    Calgary2.9%
    Ottawa–Gatineau2.3%
    Montréal0.5%
    Vancouver0.2%
    Toronto0.0%

    Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

    Housing

    New-home prices changed +1.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, the second-largest increase of the six, and only Montréal's is larger; the index covers the Ottawa–Gatineau metropolitan area on the Ontario side. Builders started 979 homes in the latest month, the fewest of the six, and 21,758 are under construction. Two-bedroom rents in purpose-built buildings averaged C$1,757 in the October 2025 survey, fourth of six, with a vacancy rate of 3.1%. Consumer prices in the Ontario part rose 3.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, level with Montréal's and Vancouver's at one decimal.

    New housing price index, change over twelve monthsNew housing price index, change over twelve months. Montréal 1.2%; Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part) 1.0%; Calgary 0.0%; Edmonton -0.8%; Vancouver -2.1%; Toronto -4.9%.NEW HOMESNew housing price index, change over twelve monthsOttawa–Gatineau highlighted. House and land, latest month against a year earlier.1Montréal1.2%2Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part)1.0%3Calgary0.0%4Edmonton-0.8%5Vancouver-2.1%6Toronto-4.9%1.2%Highest: Montréal-4.9%Lowest: TorontoSource: Statistics Canada, Table 18-10-0205-01. Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada.NORTHLINE ECONOMICSDescriptive analysis; not advice or a forecast.
    The data behind this graphic
    New housing price index, change over twelve months
    ItemValue
    Montréal1.2%
    Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part)1.0%
    Calgary0.0%
    Edmonton-0.8%
    Vancouver-2.1%
    Toronto-4.9%

    Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

    Output

    Gross domestic product at basic prices for the Ontario part of the metropolitan area was C$88.0 billion in 2022, 30.9% higher than five years earlier in current dollars. Because it leaves out the Quebec side, it is not ranked against the other five, which are whole metropolitan areas. Manufacturing shipments were 1.9% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier, the smallest increase of the six.

    What it means for decisions

    For an employer, there is more slack here than in the Alberta metros, with a lower employment rate than either and a higher unemployment rate than Calgary's. For a builder, the low number of starts alongside rising new-home prices is the notable pairing. For a household, the labour market is the constraint.

    What the data cannot say: they do not separate public-sector from private employment, the Ontario and Quebec sides of the metropolitan area, wages or resale prices; some series cover only the Ontario part. Nothing here is a forecast.

    1. Jobs: 868 thousand people are employed, 0.9% against a year ago; unemployment is 7.1%. The employment rate, 60.7%, is 6th of 6 among the six. Labour
    1. Prices: inflation in the Ontario part is 3.0%, against 3.1% for Canada. The city index is held here for all items only. Prices
    1. People: the population changed 2.3% in the year to July 2025, 3rd of 6 among the six metros. Population
    1. Housing: new-home prices in the Ontario part changed +1.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 21,758 homes under construction. CMHC puts the additional starts needed each year at 22,000 to 27,000. Housing
    1. Industry: manufacturing shipments are C$682 million a month, 1.9% against a year ago. Industry
    1. Connections: the links that reach Ottawa–Gatineau are national or provincial, and none is measured for the city. Connections

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (10 datasets, 1 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Metropolitan labour series are sample-survey estimates, three-month averages, and move more than provincial ones. Output is annual, in current dollars and about four years old; migration series cover the twelve months from July 1 of the year shown. Rankings compare only these six metropolitan areas. No wages, resale prices, commercial real estate or investment records are held for the metropolitan areas.

    0.5 · Output and economic size

    How large is the Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part) economy, and how fast has it grown?

    Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part)'s economy was worth C$88.0 billion in 2022, 8.9% of Ontario's output

    Graphic: GDP at basic prices, current dollars: how 7 places compareGDP at basic prices, current dollars: how 7 places compare. Ontario C$987.8 billion; Toronto CMA C$522.4…

    What happened

    At basic prices and in current dollars, the Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part) economy produced C$88.0 billion of output in 2022, the latest reference year in Statistics Canada's table, equal to 8.9% of Ontario's total of C$987.8 billion. Among the six large metropolitan areas it ranked 6th of 6 by size, but that sets the Ontario part alone against the whole of the other five. Statistics Canada publishes this table for the Ontario and Quebec parts of Ottawa–Gatineau separately, so the figures here describe the Ontario part only and are not the whole metropolitan area.

    Measured in current dollars, output was 61.1% higher in 2022 than in 2009 and 19.1% higher than in 2019. Ontario as a whole was 77.2% higher than in 2009 and 18.5% higher than in 2019. Over the same period since 2009 the other metropolitan areas grew 72.4% in Calgary, 54.6% in Edmonton, 85.0% in Toronto, 98.1% in Vancouver and 75.3% in Montréal.

    GDP at basic prices by metropolitan area, indexed

    Annual, current dollars (so prices and population growth are included); 2009 = 100. Statistics Canada table 36-10-0468-01; the reference year lags the present by about three and a half years. Ottawa–Gatineau is published in an Ontario and a Quebec part and is not shown.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Calgary 130,000,000,000 (2022); Edmonton 103,400,000,000 (2022); Toronto 522,400,000,000 (2022); Vancouver 202,500,000,000 (2022); and 2 more in the data table.

    Why it happened

    Not assessed. The table is in current dollars, so these changes include price increases, and it is not divided by population, so the figures do not separate growth in the number of people from growth in output per person. This section reports the data; attributed explanations of the differences are in the economic story and local-economy sections of this page.

    Why it matters

    GDP at basic prices is the broadest measure of local production that Statistics Canada publishes for metropolitan areas. It shows how large the local economy is and how its share of the provincial total compares, but not who earns the income, what is produced, or how the economy is doing now.

    History

    The series starts in 2009 and ends in 2022. A fall in output in any year in between would show in the chart; no year-by-year explanation is offered here.

    Across geographies

    Historical context

    The six series are comparable with each other because they come from one table with one definition and one price basis. The metropolitan totals sum, together with the areas outside metropolitan areas, to the provincial totals in the same table, which is why the provincial share above is exact for the reference year; the Statistics Canada footnote notes that there may be a lag between the metropolitan figures and the latest available provincial measures.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: Table 36-10-0468-01: Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by census metropolitan area (CMA)

    What it influences

    Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links metropolitan output to another variable.

    Risks

    The table ends in 2022 and describes nothing since; it cannot show the effects of recent changes in interest rates, trade policy, population or commodity prices on Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part).

    What to watch

    Statistics Canada's next release of table 36-10-0468-01. No release date for it is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Sources for this section (1 datasets, 1 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Annual, current dollars, GDP at basic prices; the latest reference year lags the present by almost four years. Not adjusted for inflation or population. Industry detail is not part of the table. Metropolitan areas follow Statistics Canada 2021 boundaries. Ottawa-Gatineau is published in an Ontario part and a Quebec part; only the Ontario part is shown.

    0.5 · The Ottawa–Gatineau economy: a government-centred region facing public-service cuts and a softening rental market

    How exposed is Ottawa–Gatineau to federal policy, and what is happening in its housing and labour markets?

    Ottawa–Gatineau's economy rests on the federal public service, which the federal government says had shrunk nationally by nearly 10% from its 2023-24 peak by August 2026, at the same time as the region's rental vacancy rate has risen and its housing supply gap has widened

    Graphic: The Ottawa–Gatineau economy: a government-centred region facing pub…The Ottawa–Gatineau economy: a government-centred region facing public-service cuts and a softening rental…

    What happened

    Ottawa–Gatineau's unemployment rate was 7.1% in October 2026 and employment was 868 thousand, 0.9% on a year earlier. The metropolitan population changed 2.3% in the year to July 2025. The average two-bedroom rent in purpose-built rental apartments was C$1,757 in the October 2025 survey with a vacancy rate of 3.1%, up from 2.3%. Units under construction were 21,758 at the end of September 2026.

    Why it happened

    Historical context

    The federal government's Budget 2025 says the federal public service grew by more than 40 per cent between 2015 and 2024, double the rate of economic growth, and plans a reduction from a peak of almost 368,000 positions in 2023-24 to roughly 330,000 by the end of 2028-29, a decline of about 10 per cent. Budget 2026 says that as of August 2026 the public service had fallen by nearly 10% from that peak, to about 332,000 employees, according to reporting by the Treasury Board Secretariat. These are national figures; neither budget says how many of the positions are in Ottawa–Gatineau, and the Treasury Board's regional count is in the local-economy section.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2025, Chapter 5: Comprehensive Expenditure Review (Canada Strong); Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2026, Chapter 6: A more efficient government

    Historical context

    CMHC's rental report says that in Ottawa the vacancy increase was partly caused by an increase in new completions along with a slowdown in demand, that the number of non-permanent residents fell sharply in Ontario and was probably also true in Ottawa, and that the higher unemployment rate in the area may have slowed rental demand; for the Quebec side it says the softening was due to an increased supply of new rental units combined with demand that didn't keep up, with slower population growth and rising unemployment. CMHC's own hedged wording ("probably", "may have") means these are inferences, not measurements.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada reports that the Ontario part of the Ottawa–Gatineau area saw the largest increase among Ontario areas in its share of new immigrants to the province, rising to 12.5% in 2024-25. The components of the metropolitan area's population change are in the population section: net non-permanent residents were 2,922 in the latest demographic year against 22 thousand a year earlier.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canada's population estimates: Subprovincial areas, 2025

    Why it matters

    Historical context

    CMHC's fall 2026 Housing Supply Report says Ottawa continues to face a significant housing supply gap despite a high level of recent construction, that the gap has widened because of a decline in affordability driven by higher mortgage rates and slower income growth, that rental units accounted for 54% of starts while condominium apartments were just 12%, that the number of units under construction is at an all-time high, and that a new citywide zoning bylaw allows up to four units as of right on most serviced residential lots.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report

    Opinion

    The pattern across these statements is a building cycle sized for faster population growth meeting slower demand and a federal employer that is shrinking; the data held here do not show how much of the rental softening comes from each.

    History

    Ottawa–Gatineau's unemployment rate has ranged from 3.8% (June 2022) to 10.4% (June 2020) over ten years, and the metropolitan population grew 22.6% over ten years.

    Historical context

    Budget 2025 also records that the Comprehensive Expenditure Review aims for an estimated reduction of 16,000 full-time equivalents, about 4.5 per cent of the workforce at March 2025.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2025, Chapter 5: Comprehensive Expenditure Review (Canada Strong)

    Across geographies

    Ottawa–Gatineau's unemployment rate is 7.1%, against 7.1% in Toronto and 6.9% in Montréal.

    Historical context

    CMHC says supply gaps have widened in Ottawa and Montréal.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report

    Historical context

    The Ontario budget projects that slower economic growth and lower population growth due to changes in federal immigration policy will contribute to a softer labour market in 2026 and that the unemployment rate will fall from 7.7 per cent in 2025 to 7.4 per cent in 2026; those are Ontario-wide projections.

    Evidence: Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance: 2026 Ontario Budget, Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

    In October 2026 Quebec's unemployment rate was 5.7% and Ontario's 7.3%, the two provinces whose labour markets the region straddles.

    What it influences

    Historical context

    CMHC says Ottawa's slower rent growth is also related to the permitted rent increase for units built before 2019 under Ontario's guideline, while the Quebec side's rents were pushed up by a record recommended increase from Quebec's rental tribunal. Rents therefore respond to different rules on each side of the river, which is one reason the combined figure above should be read with the two provinces' regimes in mind.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

    Risks

    Historical context

    The federal plan is a policy choice that could be revised. Budget 2026 projects the decline to continue, and both budgets describe it nationally only.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2025, Chapter 5: Comprehensive Expenditure Review (Canada Strong); Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2026, Chapter 6: A more efficient government

    Historical context

    The Ontario budget says global trade tensions and uncertainty constitute the main risks to Ontario's outlook.

    Evidence: Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance: 2026 Ontario Budget, Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

    Historical context

    CMHC says Central Canada is more affected by trade risks and is likely to lag, and that historically low levels of construction will be most visible in Ontario and British Columbia, particularly in condominiums.

    Evidence: CMHC: Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook

    What to watch

    Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey and population estimates, CMHC's starts and the autumn Rental Market Survey (release calendar), and the Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat's public-service population tables will show how public-sector employment and rental demand develop. No forecast for Ottawa–Gatineau from a primary source is cited, so none is given.

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (7 datasets, 7 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Every explanation here is a statement by the named organisation. The federal figures are national: neither budget gives a split for Ottawa–Gatineau. The Treasury Board's regional count is in the local-economy section. CMHC reports Ottawa (Ontario) and Gatineau (Quebec) separately, and the census metropolitan area spans both provinces; each statement says which side it describes. Metropolitan wages and productivity are not held. Forecasts are the publishers' and are not Northline forecasts. The reduction plan is quoted from Budget 2025, and the national count for August 2026 from Budget 2026, tabled on 5 November 2026.

    0.6 · Ottawa–Gatineau's local economy: a federal-government region with a defence and technology cluster, two provincial halves, and a public-service reduction under way

    Who and what are the local drivers of the Ottawa–Gatineau economy, how do the Ontario and Quebec sides differ, and what do its prospects depend on?

    Ottawa–Gatineau's economy rests on federal employment, which on the Treasury Board's count has already fallen from its 2024 peak, and on a technology and defence cluster, two universities, an airport and a rail and housing build-out that are shared unevenly between Ontario and Quebec

    Graphic: Ottawa–Gatineau's local economy: a federal-government region with a…Ottawa–Gatineau's local economy: a federal-government region with a defence and technology cluster, two…

    What happened

    Ottawa–Gatineau's unemployment rate was 7.1% in October 2026 and employment was 868 thousand, 0.9% on a year earlier. In the 2021 Census, public administration accounted for 25.7% of the 661 thousand jobs located in the metropolitan area, health care and social assistance for 12.9% and professional, scientific and technical services for 10.7%. The Ontario part of the area produced C$88.0 billion of output in 2022; the Quebec part is published separately in the same table and is not shown here.

    Those are a snapshot of where people work and what they produce, not a ranking of employers. The rest of this section uses organisations' own statements to say what sits behind them, and says each time which side of the river or which boundary a statement covers. The sourced story section of this report covers the federal plan and the rental market in more detail.

    Why it happened

    Federal employment and spending

    Historical context

    The Treasury Board Secretariat's count of the federal public service in the National Capital Region (Ontario and Quebec sides together) was 107,288 at March 31, 2015, 155,505 in 2024, the highest of the twelve years in the table, 153,979 in 2025 and 146,149 in 2026. The table excludes the RCMP, the Canadian Armed Forces and, for lack of pay-system data, the National Capital Commission and CSIS.

    Evidence: Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat: Population of the federal public service in the National Capital Region

    Historical context

    On the Quebec side the count went from 37,620 in 2024 to 34,949 in 2026, and on the Ontario side from 117,885 to 111,200. These are federal employees by work location, a different boundary from the census metropolitan area.

    Evidence: Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat: Population of the federal public service in the National Capital Region

    Historical context

    The federal Budget 2025 plans a reduction in the public service from a peak of almost 368,000 in 2023-24 to roughly 330,000 by the end of 2028-29, and estimates savings of $13 billion annually by 2028-29. Budget 2026 says that as of August 2026 the public service had fallen by nearly 10% from that peak, to about 332,000 employees, and that more than 10,000 applications were made to the Early Retirement Incentive program between March and July 2026. Both budgets' figures are national; the Treasury Board table above is the only registered regional count.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2025, Chapter 5: Comprehensive Expenditure Review (Canada Strong); Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2026, Chapter 6: A more efficient government

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada reports that payroll employment in federal government public administration declined by 9,000 year over year in March 2026, while local and provincial public administration rose; this is national.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies, March 2026

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada's October Labour Force Survey says the number of public-sector employees rose by 50,000 in October after four consecutive monthly declines totalling 148,000, and was 70,000 lower than a year earlier; these are national figures.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, October 2026 (The Daily)

    Historical context

    On the Quebec side, CMHC says that in 2025 the Gatineau area, like the rest of Quebec, had slower population growth while its unemployment rate increased.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

    Historical context

    The Treasury Board says executives have been required on site five days a week since May 4, 2026 and other hybrid-eligible employees four days a week from July 6, 2026, and that some organizations may need added capacity and may stagger implementation.

    Evidence: Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat: On-site presence in the public service (hybrid work timeline)

    Opinion

    Hypothesis, not a finding: a smaller federal workforce and a higher on-site requirement pull office demand in opposite directions, and the sources held here do not measure which dominates.

    Defence, procurement and technology

    Historical context

    Budget 2026 says Canada reached NATO's benchmark of spending 2% of GDP on defence in 2025-26, with more than $65 billion spent that year, and is on track to spend 4% of GDP this decade and 5% by 2035. It says the government introduced legislation in October, Bill C-40, to establish the Defence Investment Agency as a Crown corporation.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2026, Chapter 5: A safe and sovereign Canada

    Historical context

    The Department of Finance said in May that the Spring Economic Update proposes $103.8 million over five years, and $22.3 million ongoing, to make the agency a stand-alone entity.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Minister Champagne highlights Spring Economic Update measures to defend Canada’s sovereignty

    Historical context

    The Defence Industrial Strategy aims over ten years to raise the share of acquisitions awarded to Canadian firms to 70 per cent and to create 125,000 jobs across the Canadian economy; these are national targets with no regional split.

    Evidence: Government of Canada (National Defence): Security, Sovereignty and Prosperity: Canada’s Defence Industrial Strategy

    Historical context

    Invest Ottawa, the lead economic development agency, says on a promotional page that Ottawa has 330+ defence and aerospace companies and 4 NATO DIANA facilities, more than 1,800 tech firms, and a telecom base including Nokia, Ericsson, Ciena and BlackBerry QNX. It gives no Kanata-specific figure.

    Evidence: Invest Ottawa: Why Ottawa (agency promotional page)

    Historical context

    The City of Gatineau says its border position gives it an advantage in attracting defence and cybersecurity firms, and that it has partnerships with the City of Ottawa to develop an industrial cluster in those fields while talks with the federal government continue.

    Evidence: Ville de Gatineau: Demandes de la Ville de Gatineau dans le cadre des consultations prébudgétaires 2026-2027 (February 2026)

    Opinion

    The sources show federal money and targets for defence and a local cluster of firms, but none says how much of the procurement will be spent in Ottawa–Gatineau. That link is a hypothesis.

    Universities and the airport

    Historical context

    The University of Ottawa lists 49,864 students in fall 2025 and 2025 federal research revenue of $208 million.

    Evidence: University of Ottawa: Quick facts (Fall 2025)

    Historical context

    Carleton University lists 30,675 students, 2,935 of them international, and $155.4 million of sponsored research in 2024-25.

    Evidence: Carleton University: Facts & Figures

    Historical context

    The Ottawa International Airport Authority reports 4.9 million passengers in 2025, up 6%, with transborder traffic down 2% and earnings before depreciation of $39.9 million against $45.8 million in 2024.

    Evidence: Ottawa International Airport Authority: A transformational year: Ottawa Airport Authority reports 2025 results (6 May 2026)

    Why it matters

    Strategy

    Historical context

    Invest Ottawa's strategic plan refresh for 2023-2028 states its mission as helping entrepreneurs and global enterprises "drive innovation, jobs and sustainable, inclusive economic growth", and lists as moonshots leveraging Ottawa's defence cluster to become a leading NATO DIANA testing site and developing a downtown innovation district.

    Evidence: Invest Ottawa: Strategic Plan Refresh 2023-2028

    Historical context

    A City of Ottawa project page (last updated February 2023) says the City's 2022-2026 Economic Development Strategy had the vision of making Ottawa the most liveable mid-sized city in North America.

    Evidence: City of Ottawa: Economic Development Strategy 2022-2026 (Engage Ottawa project page, last updated 7 Feb 2023)

    Rail and infrastructure

    Historical context

    A federal briefing note from March 2024 says Stage 2 of the Ottawa light rail project would add approximately 40 km of rail and 23 stations, that Ottawa's federal investment was approximately $1.1 billion, that the City is responsible for procurement, construction and maintenance, and that the federal government found the inquiry's findings on Stage 1 service disruptions concerning.

    Evidence: Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada: Parliamentary briefing note, Infrastructure (March 2024): Ottawa Light Rail Transit

    Historical context

    On the Quebec side, the transport minister announced on February 17, 2026 that Mobilité Infra Québec would continue and optimise the Gatineau tramway project, updating earlier analyses within a responsible financial framework, under a nine-month mandate.

    Evidence: Gouvernement du Québec, Ministère des Transports et de la Mobilité durable: Le gouvernement du Québec confie le mandat de développer un projet de transport structurant pour Gatineau à Mobilité Infra Québec (17 February 2026)

    Historical context

    The City of Gatineau says the transit authority STO's provincial operating funding fell by 6 M$ in the past year.

    Evidence: Ville de Gatineau: Demandes de la Ville de Gatineau dans le cadre des consultations prébudgétaires 2026-2027 (February 2026)

    Population and housing

    Historical context

    CMHC says Ottawa needs 22,000 to 27,000 additional housing starts a year to restore 2019 affordability by 2036, that rental apartments were 69% of units under construction, and that its medium-term scenario has Ottawa–Gatineau's population index at 109 in 2035 (2025 = 100); the Ottawa and Ottawa–Gatineau labels are CMHC's.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report

    Historical context

    The City of Gatineau says it has a little over 300 000 residents and expects population to grow 15 % by 2051, against 7.3 % for Quebec.

    Evidence: Ville de Gatineau: Demandes de la Ville de Gatineau dans le cadre des consultations prébudgétaires 2026-2027 (February 2026)

    Historical context

    CMHC's 2025 survey puts the average two-bedroom rent in purpose-built apartments at $1,460 in the Gatineau area, up 4.7% in its same-sample measure, against $1,926 in Ottawa, up 3.4%; CMHC says that, unlike Gatineau, Ottawa saw slower rent growth.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

    History

    Historical context

    The Treasury Board count was lowest in 2015 and rose each year to 2024, so the 2026 figure of 146,149 remains above its 2015 starting point of 107,288 even after two years of decline.

    Evidence: Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat: Population of the federal public service in the National Capital Region

    Historical context

    Budget 2025 says the public service grew by more than 40 per cent between 2015 and 2024, double the rate of economic growth.

    Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Budget 2025, Chapter 5: Comprehensive Expenditure Review (Canada Strong)

    Across geographies

    Labour market by area

    Historical context

    In Statistics Canada's three-month average to October 2026 (seasonally adjusted), the unemployment rate was 7.3 per cent in the Ontario part and 6.3 per cent in the Quebec part. Employment was 13.1 thousand (2.0 per cent) higher than a year earlier in the Ontario part and 5.6 thousand (2.9 per cent) lower in the Quebec part; the whole area's figures are at the start of this page.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, October 2026: Table 7, labour force characteristics by census metropolitan area

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada's unadjusted economic-region table for the same three months shows Ottawa (Ontario) at 8.0 per cent against 7.2 a year earlier, and Outaouais (Quebec) at 6.4 against 7.6. The metropolitan, economic-region and seasonal-adjustment bases differ, so the rates are not comparable with each other.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, October 2026: Table 9, labour force characteristics by province and economic region

    Historical context

    The March 2026 Ontario budget projected a softer Ontario labour market in 2026. The Province's fall outlook of 29 October says the labour market has remained resilient despite ongoing economic uncertainty and projects the unemployment rate to fall from 7.2 per cent in 2026 to 6.1 per cent in 2029. Both are province-wide views.

    Evidence: Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance: 2026 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: Backgrounder: Economic and Fiscal Overview; Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance: 2026 Ontario Budget, Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook

    Housing rules differ by side

    Historical context

    CMHC says Ottawa's slower rent growth is related to Ontario's 2.5% guideline for units built before 2019, and that Ontario-side vacancy was highest, 6.7%, for units built after 2015; for Gatineau it says vacancy continued to rise and exceeded CMHC's forecast.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

    What it influences

    Where the sources point to growth and to contraction

    Opinion

    This is a reading of the sources, not a finding, and no employer-level data are held. Pointing to expansion: defence and aerospace firms (promotional and municipal statements), rental construction and units under construction (CMHC), airport passenger volume and Ontario-side immigration share (Statistics Canada). Pointing to contraction: federal employment by the Treasury Board's count, Quebec-side employment (Statistics Canada), international enrolment (CMHC and Statistics Canada, nationally) and downtown Gatineau.

    Historical context

    The City of Gatineau says its downtown had the largest fall in foot traffic among Canadian cities since the pandemic, a drop of 75 %, and that commercial vacancy was 15.7 % in 2025; it also says the Outaouais lags comparable regions in public health, education and culture funding, with a deficit of 66 university programmes in 2023.

    Evidence: Ville de Gatineau: Demandes de la Ville de Gatineau dans le cadre des consultations prébudgétaires 2026-2027 (February 2026)

    Risks

    Historical context

    CMHC says Central Canada is more affected by trade risks and is likely to lag.

    Evidence: CMHC: Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook

    Historical context

    The March 2026 Ontario budget named global trade tensions and uncertainty as the main risks to Ontario's outlook, and the fall outlook of 29 October says that ongoing economic uncertainty and the impacts of US tariffs and trade disruptions have worsened the province's fiscal outlook since then.

    Evidence: Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance: 2026 Ontario Budget, Chapter 2: Economic Performance and Outlook; Government of Ontario, Ministry of Finance: 2026 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: Backgrounder: Economic and Fiscal Overview

    Opinion

    Structural challenges implied by the statements above, labelled as hypotheses: concentration in one employer with a stated reduction plan; a border that gives the two sides different housing rules, transit decisions and funding; reliance on federal defence spending whose local share is unmeasured; and the national fall in international students on which universities here may depend, to an extent the sources do not measure.

    What to watch

    The Treasury Board's next annual regional count, Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey by area and the next payroll release, Parliament's decision on the bill to make the Defence Investment Agency a Crown corporation, Mobilité Infra Québec's findings on the tramway (the mandate runs nine months from February 2026), CMHC's autumn rental survey, and the City of Ottawa's approved economic strategy.

    Not covered by the sources cited, and so not described here: employer rankings, wages by industry for the metropolitan area, Kanata North employment, Stage 2 O-Train costs and opening dates, the City of Ottawa budget, the NCC, Conference Board or Bank of Canada regional outlooks, and the current office vacancy rate.

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (3 datasets, 25 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Every explanation here is a statement by the named organisation. The City of Gatineau's pre-budget submission is in French and is paraphrased in English. The region spans two provinces and the sources use different boundaries: the Treasury Board's National Capital Region, Statistics Canada's census metropolitan area (with Ontario and Quebec parts), its Ottawa (Ontario) and Outaouais (Quebec) economic regions, and CMHC's Ottawa and Gatineau areas. They are not reconciled. Invest Ottawa's pages are promotional. The City of Ottawa's approved economic development strategy, Kanata North figures, Stage 2 O-Train costs and opening dates, the City budget and the downtown office vacancy rate are not described. No employer ranking, wage series by industry for the metropolitan area, or Kanata-specific employment figure from a primary source is used. The federal public-service reduction is the federal government's plan, quoted nationally. Forecasts are the publishers' and are not Northline forecasts. The reduction plan is quoted from Budget 2025; the national count for August 2026 and the defence figures come from Budget 2026, tabled on 5 November 2026.

    1 · Labour market

    Is Ottawa–Gatineau's labour market keeping pace with the other large metropolitan areas?

    In October 2026, Ottawa–Gatineau had 868 thousand workers, employment had changed 0.9% over the year and unemployment was 7.1%, with 60.7% of adults employed

    Graphic: Unemployment rate, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted: how…Unemployment rate, 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted: how 6 places compare. Ottawa–Gatineau CMA…

    What happened

    Ottawa–Gatineau's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (three-month average) was 7.1% in October 2026, from 7.3% a year earlier. For comparison: Calgary's 6.6%, Edmonton's 7.1%, Toronto's 7.1%, Vancouver's 6.7%, Montréal's 6.9%. Employment of 868 thousand changed 0.9% over the year, against 6.2% in Calgary, 1.9% in Toronto and 1.2% in Vancouver.

    Unemployment rate by metropolitan area

    Percent, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted. Census metropolitan areas only; do not compare with provincial monthly rates (different smoothing).

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    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 7.1 (2026-10); Calgary 6.6 (2026-10); Edmonton 7.1 (2026-10); Toronto 7.1 (2026-10); and 2 more in the data table.

    Employment by metropolitan area, indexed

    Three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted; start of period = 100.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 867,900 (2026-10); Calgary 1,053,000 (2026-10); Edmonton 889,000 (2026-10); Toronto 3,792,000 (2026-10); and 2 more in the data table.

    The participation rate is 65.3% and the employment rate 60.7% (6th of 6 among the six areas, against 66.7% in Calgary and 62.2% in Toronto).

    Participation rate by metropolitan area

    Percent, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 65.3 (2026-10); Calgary 71.4 (2026-10); Edmonton 68.7 (2026-10); Toronto 66.9 (2026-10); and 2 more in the data table.

    By industry, Statistics Canada's annual Labour Force Survey estimates (table 14-10-0468-01, annual averages, not seasonally adjusted) put average employment in Ottawa–Gatineau at 877 thousand in 2025, a change of -0.8% on the year before and of 9.5% since 2019. Goods-producing industries account for 11.1% of employed persons and services-producing industries for 88.9%; among the individual groups, public administration 22.1%, health care and social assistance 13.1% and professional, scientific and technical services 10.3% of employment. The table counts people by the industry of their main job and by where they live, so it is a measure of employment, not of output, wages or the number of businesses. The Ottawa–Gatineau figures cover the whole metropolitan area, Ontario and Quebec parts together. Estimates for a single industry group in one metropolitan area come from a small survey sample and are less steady than the total: Statistics Canada suppresses some cells, and the table is annual, so a one-year move in a small group should not be read as a trend. No sampling-error range is held with these series, so none is quoted; the monthly metropolitan rates above are three-month averages and are noisier than the annual figures. Wages for the metropolitan area are not held here; the Statistics Canada wage tables used cover provinces and Canada.

    Employment in Ottawa–Gatineau: goods and services, indexed

    Annual average of employed persons, Labour Force Survey (Statistics Canada table 14-10-0468-01); first year shown = 100. Goods-producing and services-producing sectors against all industries. Annual estimates, not seasonally adjusted.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: All industries 877,300 (2025); Goods-producing sector 97,600 (2025); Services-producing sector 779,600 (2025).

    Employment by industry group in fourteen metropolitan areas, 2025

    Share of employed persons living in each metropolitan area who work in each group (annual average, Labour Force Survey; the survey classifies jobs by the industry of the person’s main job, not by where the employer sits). Single-sector estimates for one metropolitan area rest on small samples; a city is left out of a chart where Statistics Canada suppresses the estimate. Shares are computed by this project from Statistics Canada table 14-10-0468-01.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Top values: Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 25.3%; Edmonton 20.8%; Calgary 20%.

    Why it happened

    The data show where Ottawa–Gatineau stands, not why. Since the end of 2019 employment has changed 4.9% in Ottawa–Gatineau, 27.1% in Calgary and 10.9% in Toronto; the data held here cannot say why those paths differ.

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada reports that in October employment fell in Alberta and Prince Edward Island, rose in British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador, held steady in Quebec and was little changed in Ontario. That is the provincial picture and not a statement about Ottawa–Gatineau.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, October 2026 (The Daily)

    Why it matters

    Jobs matter for household income and housing demand. The employment rate says more than the unemployment rate about how much of the adult population is working, because people who stop looking for work leave the unemployment count.

    History

    Over ten years Ottawa–Gatineau's unemployment rate has averaged 5.6%, with a high of 10.4% in June 2020 and a low of 3.8% in June 2022.

    Across geographies

    Ottawa–Gatineau's rate minus Calgary's is 0.5 percentage points. As context, on a different definition (monthly, province-wide), Ontario's unemployment rate is 7.3% and Canada's 6.7%; these must not be read against the metropolitan three-month averages. Ottawa–Gatineau spans two provinces; Quebec's province-wide rate is 5.7% on the same basis.

    What it influences

    Jobs matter for household income and housing demand in the region. The relationship explorer lists the national and provincial links that reach the city, each with its evidence class.

    Risks

    Not assessed: the exposure of Ottawa–Gatineau's employment to particular industries or to US demand. The annual industry employment shown above describes the mix of jobs, not exposure.

    What to watch

    Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (release dates in the calendar).

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (3 datasets, 1 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Metropolitan rates are three-month moving averages from the Labour Force Survey and are noisier than national figures. They are not comparable with provincial or national monthly rates and are never charted with them. Wages and demographic breakdowns for the metropolitan area are not included; annual employment by industry group (Labour Force Survey, annual averages, with suppressed cells and small-sample variability) is held, but it is not seasonally adjusted and is not output or wages.

    2 · Prices and inflation

    Is inflation in Ottawa–Gatineau higher or lower than in the other large cities?

    Inflation in the Ontario part of Ottawa–Gatineau was 3.0% in September 2026, against 3.1% for Canada

    Graphic: Consumer Price Index, all-items, 12-month change : Ottawa–Gatineau …Consumer Price Index, all-items, 12-month change : Ottawa–Gatineau CMA, Ontario…. Latest, September 2026…

    What happened

    Consumer prices in the Ontario part of Ottawa–Gatineau were 3.0% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier (from 2.1% a year before), against 3.4% in Calgary, 2.1% in Toronto and 3.0% in Vancouver, and 3.1% for Canada. The Ottawa–Gatineau index covers the Ontario part only.

    Consumer price inflation by city

    12-month change in the all-items CPI (derived). Ottawa–Gatineau is the Ontario part only.

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    Latest values: Calgary 3.36 (2026-09); Edmonton 3.52 (2026-09); Toronto 2.08 (2026-09); Vancouver 3.03 (2026-09); and 2 more in the data table.

    Why it happened

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada reports that national headline inflation accelerated in September, led by gasoline, and that excluding gasoline the CPI rose less. The city index is held here for all items only, so this report cannot say what lies behind the Ontario part's rate. Statistics Canada does note that shelter inflation was held down by falling mortgage interest cost and homeowners' replacement cost nationally, which is a national statement.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Consumer Price Index, September 2026

    Why it matters

    The CPI measures changes in prices, not their level, so a rate of change says nothing about how expensive the city is. The Ontario part's rate was 2.1% a year earlier; a rate that is falling or rising against its own recent past tells more than its rank. Because the index covers all items together, it cannot show whether housing, food or energy explains the difference.

    History

    The Ontario part's rate has averaged 2.9% over ten years and peaked at 7.7% in June 2022.

    Across geographies

    The Ontario part's rate minus Canada's is -0.1 percentage points.

    What it influences

    Inflation bears on wage bargaining, the policy rate and mortgage renewals; those links are national and not measured for the city.

    Risks

    The risks that published sources attribute to Ottawa–Gatineau specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; the national risks are energy prices and tariffs (see the Canada report).

    What to watch

    Statistics Canada's monthly Consumer Price Index release (calendar).

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (1 datasets, 1 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: The city CPI is held here for all items only. The table used publishes shelter and its parts for cities, but not food or gasoline, and the shelter series are not held here, so the drivers of the difference with other cities are not measured. The consumer price index and the New Housing Price Index for Ottawa–Gatineau cover the Ontario part only.

    3 · Population and growth

    Is Ottawa–Gatineau still growing, and how does that compare with the other large cities?

    Ottawa–Gatineau's population changed 2.3% in the year to July 2025, ranked 3rd of 6 among the six large metropolitan areas

    Graphic: Population estimate, July 1 (2021 boundaries): how 5 places comparePopulation estimate, July 1 (2021 boundaries): how 5 places compare. Toronto CMA 7.1 million; Vancouver…

    What happened

    The Ottawa–Gatineau metropolitan area had 1.7 million residents on July 1, 2025, a change of 2.3% from a year earlier. Over five years it changed 11.5%, against 20.1% in Calgary and 9.5% in Toronto. In the latest year the rates were 2.9% in Calgary, 3.1% in Edmonton, 0.0% in Toronto and 0.2% in Vancouver.

    Population by metropolitan area, indexed

    July 1 estimates, 2021 boundaries; start of period = 100.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 1,700,000 (2025); Calgary 1,836,000 (2025); Edmonton 1,692,000 (2025); Toronto 7,109,000 (2025); and 2 more in the data table.

    Why it happened

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada reports that from July 1, 2025, to July 1, 2026, national population growth continued to slow to its lowest since 1944/1945, that the number of non-permanent residents fell by the largest annual amount on record with study-permit holders accounting for most of the decline, and that Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, which receive the largest shares of international migrants, grew slowest among the provinces.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canada's population estimates, second quarter 2026

    This is the provincial and national explanation; the metropolitan population estimates end in July 2025, before the 2026 decline, so they cannot show it. The components of the metropolitan change are shown below.

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada's January 2026 release on subprovincial estimates reports that the population growth rate from July 2024 to July 2025 was lower for all 41 census metropolitan areas than in the previous year. It reports that the Ontario part of the Ottawa–Gatineau area saw the largest increase in its share of new immigrants to Ontario over five years.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canada's population estimates: Subprovincial areas, 2025

    In the demographic year that began in July 2024, the Ottawa–Gatineau metropolitan area recorded 15 thousand births and 12 thousand deaths, 26 thousand immigrants, a net change of 2,922 non-permanent residents, net interprovincial migration of 3,531 and net intraprovincial migration (movement to and from the rest of the province) of 4,660. The year before, immigrants numbered 23 thousand and the net change in non-permanent residents was 22 thousand. Net non-permanent residents averaged 7,925 a year over the latest five demographic years.

    Where Ottawa–Gatineau's population change came from

    Persons over the twelve months from July 1 of the year shown (so 2024 is July 2024 to June 2025), 2021 boundaries. Net movements: negative = net outflow. Statistics Canada table 17-10-0149-01.

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    Latest values: Immigrants 26,380 (2024); Net non-permanent residents 2,922 (2024); Net interprovincial migration 3,531 (2024); Net intraprovincial migration 4,660 (2024).

    Why it matters

    Population growth adds workers and households, which can add to demand for housing and services.

    History

    Over ten years the population changed 22.6%.

    Across geographies

    Ontario's population changed 0.3% over the four quarters to 1 July 2026, against 1.5% in Alberta; Ontario's net change in non-permanent residents over four quarters was -86 thousand. These are provincial figures.

    What it influences

    Hypothesis, not established

    The 2026 fall in non-permanent residents could reduce demand for rental and starter housing in cities that host many international students. The metropolitan change in non-permanent residents to June 2025 is shown among the components above; it does not cover the 2026 fall.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canada's population estimates, second quarter 2026

    Risks

    Not assessed: the effect of the federal immigration levels plan on Ottawa–Gatineau specifically.

    What to watch

    Statistics Canada's quarterly provincial and annual metropolitan population estimates and the federal levels plan.

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Sources for this section (4 datasets, 2 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: City population is an annual July 1 estimate on 2021 boundaries and ends a year before the latest provincial figures. Components of change come from a separate table (17-10-0149-01) whose demographic year runs from July 1 to June 30; each is labelled by the year in which that year starts, so the latest covers July 2024 to June 2025. They describe how much each component contributed and do not explain why. Births and deaths are not netted here; net emigration, returning emigrants and the table's residual are not shown, so the components shown need not add to the total change.

    4 · Housing supply and prices

    Is Ottawa–Gatineau building enough homes, and what is happening to prices?

    New-home prices in the Ontario part of Ottawa–Gatineau changed +1.0% in the twelve months to September 2026, with 21,758 homes under construction across the metropolitan area at the end of September 2026 and CMHC putting Ottawa's annual supply gap at 22,000 to 27,000

    Graphic: Housing under construction, total units (CMHC data): how 5 places c…Housing under construction, total units (CMHC data): how 5 places compare. Toronto CMA 88,108; Vancouver…

    What happened

    Ottawa–Gatineau started 14,228 homes over the past twelve months and completed 13,319. At the end of September 2026, 21,758 were under construction, 4.1% against a year earlier (Toronto 88,108, Vancouver 61,680, Calgary 26,252).

    Housing starts by metropolitan area (12-month total)

    Total units started over the previous 12 months; CMHC data distributed by Statistics Canada.

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    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 14,230 (2026-09); Calgary 24,400 (2026-09); Edmonton 19,060 (2026-09); Toronto 23,360 (2026-09); and 2 more in the data table.

    Housing under construction by metropolitan area

    Units under construction at month end, total units; CMHC data distributed by Statistics Canada.

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    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 21,760 (2026-09); Calgary 26,250 (2026-09); Edmonton 18,490 (2026-09); Toronto 88,110 (2026-09); and 2 more in the data table.

    The New Housing Price Index for the Ontario part of Ottawa–Gatineau is 162.3, 1.0% on a year ago and -2.9% since February 2022. Vancouver's index changed -2.1% over the year and Toronto's -4.9%. Index levels are not comparable across cities because each is indexed to its own base. The Ottawa–Gatineau index covers the Ontario part only.

    New housing price index by city, indexed

    Total (house and land); start of period = 100. Ottawa–Gatineau is the Ontario part only.

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    Latest values: Calgary 129.7 (2026-09); Edmonton 105.7 (2026-09); Toronto 105 (2026-09); Vancouver 123.4 (2026-09); and 2 more in the data table.

    Historical context

    CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report puts the additional housing starts needed in Ottawa at 22,000 to 27,000 a year over the next decade. It reports that rental construction is carrying supply while ownership construction has weakened sharply.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report

    In the October 2025 Rental Market Survey the average rent for a two-bedroom unit in purpose-built rental structures of three or more units in Ottawa–Gatineau was C$1,757 a month, 4.3% higher than a year earlier (CMHC's same-sample figures, for structures surveyed in both years, are 3.4% for Ottawa and 4.7% for Gatineau) and 33.6% higher than five years earlier, ranking 6th of 14 among fourteen cities (highest = 1); the same measure was C$1,908 in Calgary, C$2,045 in Toronto, C$2,364 in Vancouver. The vacancy rate was 3.1%, from 2.3% a year earlier (against 3.1% in Saskatoon, 4.9% in Calgary, 3.0% in Toronto, 3.7% in Vancouver). The table covers purpose-built rental structures only; condominium, house and basement-suite rentals, and the asking rents on new listings, are not in it.

    Average rent, two-bedroom units: fourteen cities

    Current dollars per month, October survey each year; row and apartment structures of three units and over only (condominium, house and basement-suite rentals are not in this table). CMHC data distributed by Statistics Canada.

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    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 1,757 (2025); Calgary 1,908 (2025); Edmonton 1,598 (2025); Toronto 2,045 (2025); and 10 more in the data table.

    Rental vacancy rate: fourteen cities

    Percent of units vacant, October survey each year; row and apartment structures of three units and over. CMHC data distributed by Statistics Canada.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 3.1 (2025); Calgary 4.9 (2025); Edmonton 3.8 (2025); Toronto 3 (2025); and 10 more in the data table.

    Why it happened

    The data show how much is being built and what is happening to new-home prices; they do not separate demand, land and construction costs, interest rates and incomes.

    Interpretation

    CMHC's assessment is that supply is not keeping up with what is needed for affordability; the data held here cannot say how far that holds for Ottawa–Gatineau specifically. In 2026 the posted five-year mortgage rate went from 6.09% in January to 6.19% on 28 October 2026, and the posted one-year rate from 5.84% to 5.49% (see the Canada report).

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Housing starts and construction data, September 2026; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report

    Historical context

    CMHC's 2025 Rental Market Report says that in Ottawa the vacancy increase was partly caused by an increase in new completions, along with a slowdown in demand, and that in the Quebec side (Gatineau) demand did not keep up with the increase in supply. CMHC reports Ottawa and Gatineau separately, so its figures are not the combined census metropolitan area used above. These are CMHC's stated reasons; the data held here do not test them.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

    Why it matters

    Housing is a large household expense. A supply gap estimate is CMHC's model-based figure, not a forecast of what will be built.

    History

    The monthly peak of units under construction in the past ten years was 21,805 in October 2023.

    Housing completions by metropolitan area (12-month total)

    Units completed over the previous 12 months, total units; CMHC data distributed by Statistics Canada.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 13,320 (2026-09); Calgary 23,830 (2026-09); Edmonton 18,250 (2026-09); Toronto 26,690 (2026-09); and 2 more in the data table.

    Across geographies

    On the six-city comparison, over the twelve months to September 2026 units under construction changed 4.1% in Ottawa–Gatineau, -4.2% in Toronto, -2.3% in Vancouver and 4.0% in Edmonton. The gap estimates in CMHC's summary table differ widely: Toronto 20,000 to 26,000 units a year, Vancouver 5,000 to 7,000, Montréal 42,000 to 56,000, Ottawa 22,000 to 27,000, Calgary 4,000 to 5,000.

    What it influences

    The Bank of Canada describes a link between mortgage costs and housing, and CMHC a link between supply and affordability; neither is estimated for Ottawa–Gatineau.

    Risks

    Historical context

    CMHC's deputy chief economist said a key risk for Canada is not building enough during this period of softening housing markets, and that affordability gains since 2023 will be difficult to sustain unless construction rises.

    Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Housing starts and construction data, September 2026

    What to watch

    CMHC's monthly starts, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index (release dates in the calendar), and the Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026.

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Sources for this section (6 datasets, 3 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Starts, completions and units under construction are CMHC counts for the metropolitan area (all unit types). The New Housing Price Index covers new homes only; resale prices are not included, and rents are the October Rental Market Survey for purpose-built rental structures only. Monthly starts and completions are volatile and are shown as twelve-month sums where compared. Building permit values are not published for Ottawa–Gatineau as a whole. The consumer price index and the New Housing Price Index for Ottawa–Gatineau cover the Ontario part only. CMHC's supply-gap estimate is for what CMHC calls Ottawa, which may not be the same area as Ottawa–Gatineau.

    5 · Industry and manufacturing

    What does the data show about industry in Ottawa–Gatineau, and what is missing?

    Ottawa–Gatineau's manufacturing shipments were C$682 million in August 2026, 1.9% higher than a year earlier; other industries are measured here only by employment

    Graphic: Industry and manufacturingIndustry and manufacturing. Manufacturing sales (shipments): Ottawa–Gatineau CMA C$682 million (August…

    What happened

    Ottawa–Gatineau manufacturing shipments were C$682 million in August 2026, 1.9% against a year earlier and 10.9% against December 2019, compared with 11.6% over the year in Toronto, 21.2% in Vancouver and 46.6% in Edmonton. Petroleum and coal product manufacturing was 1.8% of the Ottawa–Gatineau total.

    Manufacturing shipments by metropolitan area, indexed

    Seasonally adjusted, current dollars (so prices are included); start of the period = 100. Cities whose latest value is suppressed are not shown.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Latest values: Ottawa–Gatineau 682,200,000 (2026-08); Calgary 1,720,000,000 (2026-08); Edmonton 5,326,000,000 (2026-08); Toronto 12,680,000,000 (2026-08); and 2 more in the data table.

    Why it happened

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada reported that national exports rose in the second quarter, mainly passenger cars and light trucks as auto production rebounded.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Gross domestic product, income and expenditure, second quarter 2026

    Historical context

    Its GDP-by-industry release for August, the month of the shipments above, says national manufacturing output rose, for the fifth time in seven months. These are national statements; the metropolitan shipments here are broken down only for petroleum and coal products, so this report cannot say how much of the change in Ottawa–Gatineau's shipments is volume, price or a particular industry.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Gross domestic product by industry, August 2026

    Why it matters

    Annual employment in public administration for the metropolitan area is in the labour section: 22.1% of employment in 2025. No technology employment series is held, so that part of the economy is not measured here.

    History

    Ottawa–Gatineau's manufacturing shipments peaked at C$932 million in March 2023 over the past ten years.

    Across geographies

    As provincial context only: Ontario's workers are employed 5.7% in public administration and Quebec's 6.3% (shares of provincial employment, 2025). The capital region spans both provinces, and these provincial shares must not be read as describing Ottawa–Gatineau.

    What it influences

    Manufacturing and construction activity feed local employment and incomes. The explorer records documented exposures for provinces and an observed association between exports to the United States and manufacturing sales; none is a measured effect on Ottawa–Gatineau.

    Risks

    Historical context

    Statistics Canada notes that new US tariffs on a range of Canadian products took effect at the end of August and that imports of motor vehicles and parts fell. The exposure of Ottawa–Gatineau's manufacturers to those tariffs is not measured here.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canadian international merchandise trade, August 2026

    What to watch

    Statistics Canada's monthly manufacturing survey and merchandise trade releases (calendar).

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (2 datasets, 3 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Manufacturing sales are current-dollar shipments and move with prices. Annual employment by industry is a Labour Force Survey sample estimate (noisy for small groups) and is in the labour section; wages and output by industry for the metropolitan area are not held. Provincial figures are context only, never a description of the city. Shipments for some industries and cities are suppressed by Statistics Canada.

    5.5 · Industry structure (2021 Census)

    What do the people who work in Ottawa–Gatineau do for a living?

    Public administration was the largest source of Ottawa–Gatineau jobs in 2021 at 25.7%, and the sector in which its share of jobs stood furthest above the other five areas combined

    What happened

    In the 2021 Census, 661 thousand jobs were located in the Ottawa–Gatineau metropolitan area (people who worked at home or had a usual workplace there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table). The three largest sectors were Public administration (25.7% of jobs), Health care and social assistance (12.9%) and Professional, scientific and technical services (10.7%). The Ottawa–Gatineau metropolitan area spans Ontario and Quebec; this table counts the whole of it, unlike the output section, which covers the Ontario part only.

    Measured as its share of jobs divided by the other five metropolitan areas' combined share (among sectors that make up at least one fiftieth of Ottawa–Gatineau's jobs), the sector in which Ottawa–Gatineau stood furthest above the rest was Public administration: 25.7% of its jobs, against 4.2% in Calgary, 8.2% in Edmonton, 4.6% in Toronto, 4.9% in Vancouver and 5.3% in Montréal.

    Jobs by industry sector in six metropolitan areas, 2021 Census

    Share of jobs located in each metropolitan area (persons who worked at home or had a usual place of work there; people with no fixed workplace address are not in the table), May 2021 reference week, pandemic conditions. Industry structure at one date, not current conditions. Shares are computed by this project from the Census counts.

    Chart loads when it comes into view.

    Top values: Edmonton 6%; Calgary 4.9%; Vancouver 4.2%.

    Why it happened

    Not assessed. The table counts jobs by sector at one date and says nothing about why a metropolitan area has the mix it has. Attributed descriptions of Ottawa–Gatineau's industry structure are in the local-economy section of this page.

    Why it matters

    The industry mix shows what a local economy does for a living, which bears on how it is exposed to changes in demand, prices and policy. It does not measure output, wages or how the economy is performing; those need other tables.

    History

    Not available from this table: the Census is taken every five years and the platform holds only the 2021 reference week (May 2021). Annual industry employment for the metropolitan area comes from the Labour Force Survey and is in the labour section of this page.

    Across geographies

    The six metropolitan areas come from one table with one definition, so the shares can be compared with one another. They are shares of jobs located in the area, not of residents' employment, and not comparable with provincial Labour Force Survey industry shares, which use a different survey, year and definition. Ontario and Quebec are not described here.

    What it influences

    Not assessed. No relationship in the recorded graph links the metropolitan industry mix to another variable.

    Risks

    Historical context

    The reference week was in May 2021, during public-health restrictions: Statistics Canada named retail trade, accommodation and food services, and information, culture and recreation among the industries most affected, and said working from home remained an important adaptation. The data are more than five years old and cannot show what has changed since.

    Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Labour Force Survey, May 2021

    What to watch

    The release of 2026 Census results on industry for metropolitan areas. No release date for them is in the calendar this site holds, and none is assumed.

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Sources for this section (1 datasets, 1 documents)

    Data

    Documents cited

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Census 2021, one reference week (May 2021) under pandemic conditions; counts are rounded by Statistics Canada. Jobs located in the metropolitan area (at home or usual workplace); people with no fixed workplace address are excluded. Not current conditions and not output, wages or productivity.

    6 · Connections to the wider economy

    How is Ottawa–Gatineau connected to the national and global economy?

    The recorded connections that reach Ottawa–Gatineau are national or provincial; none is measured for the city

    Graphic: Connections to the wider economyConnections to the wider economy. USD/CAD monthly average exchange rate (C$ per 1 USD), counterpa… C$1.41…

    What happened

    The recorded connections that reach Ottawa–Gatineau are provincial or national. Ontario's exposure to the United States was 72% of its goods exports in 2025; the national export shares that year were 72% to the United States and 4.5% to China.

    Oil prices and metropolitan employment are compared in the relationship graph only for Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto, with correlations of 0.37, 0.41 and 0.37. Ottawa–Gatineau is not compared.

    Why it happened

    Not assessed. Trade and investment links that published sources describe for Ottawa–Gatineau are in the local-economy section of this page; no city-level trade data are held.

    Why it matters

    The currency, interest rates and trade partners that matter for Ottawa–Gatineau are covered at national level in the Global report: one US dollar cost an average of C$1.4135 in October 2026; Canada's posted five-year mortgage rate was 6.19% in the week of 28 October 2026, and it rose 0.10 percentage points over the year to then. The US ten-year Treasury yield was 4.84% on 5 November 2026 and Canada's ten-year yield 3.67% on 5 November 2026; how much of any move in either reaches Ottawa–Gatineau's housing market is not measured here.

    History

    Not assessed.

    Across geographies

    Interpretation

    Bond yields and the posted five-year mortgage rate tend to move together, which matters for housing; the effect on Ottawa–Gatineau is not measured.

    Evidence: relationship: Government of Canada bond yields and Prime and posted mortgage rates

    What it influences

    Three chains bear on Ottawa–Gatineau, each national or provincial: US trade measures to exports (hypotheses nationally, with sourced provincial statements), rates to mortgage costs and housing (documented nationally) and immigration policy to population (documented nationally).

    Risks

    The risks that published sources attribute to this city specifically are in the local-economy section of this page; beyond those, see the national risks in the Canada report and the global risks in the Global report.

    What to watch

    The Bank of Canada's next announcement on 9 December 2026, tariff changes and Statistics Canada's monthly trade release (calendar).

    Prepared with AI assistance.

    Follow the relationships

    Upcoming releases

    Sources for this section (4 datasets, 0 documents)

    Data

    Each dataset is used under its licence; attribution and series-level detail are in each chart’s “About this data” panel. Limitations: Ottawa–Gatineau-specific evidence is thin. Most recorded relationships are national or provincial; highlighting a province or a path in the explorer is not a measured effect on the city.

    What is missing

    What this page does not cover

    Stated plainly rather than hidden.

    Data requirements

    Output and wages by industry for the metropolitan area
    Annual employment by industry group (Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0468-01), the 2021 Census industry mix and total metropolitan GDP (annual, no industry detail) are now ingested. Output by industry for the metropolitan area is not, and no wage series for the metropolitan area is held: the open Statistics Canada wage tables cover provinces and Canada, not metropolitan areas.
    not covered
    Resale prices, rents outside purpose-built rental, and household incomes
    Resale data are licensed. Average rent and vacancy for purpose-built rental structures (CMHC Rental Market Survey) are ingested; condominium, house and basement-suite rents and household income tables for the metropolitan area are not.
    not covered
    Commercial real estate, office and industrial markets
    Proprietary sources; licensing required.
    not covered
    Infrastructure, major projects and public investment
    A project is listed only once its source, status and value have been checked.
    not covered
    Municipal finance and policynot covered
    Method and sources

    How this report is built

    Same pipeline, gates and editorial rules as every other page.

    Every number is a reference to a published, licence-checked series for the same geography (ca.on.cma_ottawa_gatineau); metropolitan series are never mixed with provincial or national ones. Statistics Canada tables 14-10-0459-01 (labour), 18-10-0004-01 (CPI), 17-10-0148-01 (population), 34-10-0154-01 (starts, completions, under construction; CMHC data), 18-10-0205-01 (new housing price index), 34-10-0292-01 (building permits) and 16-10-0011-01 (manufacturing shipments, six large cities only), 17-10-0149-01 (components of population change), 34-10-0133-01 and 34-10-0130-01 (rents and vacancy, CMHC Rental Market Survey), 36-10-0468-01 (GDP at basic prices) 98-10-0492-01 (2021 Census jobs by industry) and 14-10-0468-01 (annual employment by industry group). Methodology and sources · Editorial policy.