The Ripple
Follow how change travels, one link at a time
A reading path through recorded links, not a forecast. Effects along a chain are never added or multiplied.
- Interest rates
The Bank of Canada moved its rate. Here is how that can reach you.
How does a change in the policy rate travel to mortgages, housing and household budgets?
- Oil and prices
Oil moved. Here is how that reaches the pump and headline inflation.
How does a disruption to energy supply travel to crude oil prices, Canadian fuel prices and inflation?
- Bond yields
US yields moved. Here is how that connects to what Ottawa pays on its debt.
How do US Treasury yields connect to Canadian bond yields and what the federal government pays on its debt?
How to read the line
A link’s line shows how strong its evidence is. The stroke carries the class, so it reads in print and without colour.
- Established mechanismA central bank, agency or published study describes how this works. It does not say how large the effect is.
- Institutional relationshipA rule, mandate or structure ties these two together.
- Estimated causal relationshipA published estimate of an effect, valid only under the conditions its source states.
- Documented exposureA measured share or dependence. It shows who is exposed, not what will happen to them.
- Observed correlationThese have moved together. That alone says nothing about cause.
- HypothesisA plausible link that has not been evidenced. An open question.