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Saskatchewan: provincial economy at a glance

Latest values, rankings and charts for Saskatchewan, all computed from Statistics Canada data held by this platform. The economic story below explains with attributed statements from official sources; the profile only computes. Forecasts quoted are their publishers' and Northline publishes none.

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Opens a workspace prepared from the published Saskatchewan measures, with what is missing stated.

The economy

What drives Saskatchewan's economy, how exposed is it to trade and commodity prices, and why do its population figures differ?

Saskatchewan had the lowest unemployment rate among the provinces in 2025 and its private investment rose that year, but its exports fell, mostly to the United States and China, and its population growth was revised up after the provincial bureau reported almost none

What happened

Saskatchewan's unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026, employment changed by 1.0% from a year earlier and the population by 1.0% from four quarters earlier. Real output across all industries changed 11.0% between 2019 and 2025.

Why it happened

Historical context

The Government of Saskatchewan describes its economy as resilient in 2025 amid weak global oil prices, trade uncertainty and slowing population growth, and says strong investment, especially in natural resources and value-added agriculture, will be a key driver of growth.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

Its investor presentation describes a high-value, capital-intensive economy of roughly half goods and half services that balances the cyclicality of non-renewable resources with agri-food industries.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance (Provincial Treasury): Fall 2026 Investor Presentation

Historical context

The budget reports a record 2025 crop of 41.8 million tonnes but a 0.9 per cent fall in farm cash receipts as global crop prices moved lower, and says potash price growth was largely driven by growing demand and a long-term supply shift toward North America.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

Statistics Canada reported that potash mining contracted in July 2026, reflecting lower Saskatchewan output; its August release, which revised the July fall to 7.8 per cent, reports that potash mining expanded 12.0 per cent in August, coinciding with higher exports of the product.

Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Gross domestic product by industry, July 2026; Statistics Canada: The Daily: Gross domestic product by industry, August 2026

Why it matters

Historical context

The March 2026 budget says the decline in Saskatchewan's exports in 2025 was concentrated in the US and Chinese markets, that agricultural exports to China were down by 1.4 billion dollars in 2025 amid Chinese retaliatory tariffs on canola and peas, that India's tariff on yellow peas also contributed, and that effects of US tariffs have been milder than anticipated because of high CUSMA compliance of around 97 per cent. It also says China lowered the duty on canola seeds to 15 per cent effective March 1, 2026.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

The first-quarter report says exports have risen 11.6 per cent year to date through June.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 First Quarter Financial Report

History

Historical context

The province's 2025 trade release says exports exceeded 43.7 billion dollars, that it ranks second in the country for per capita exports, that potash exports rose 13.5 per cent, and that private capital investment rose 12 per cent to 13.6 billion dollars, ranking first among provinces.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Exports Remain Strong (State of Trade report release)

Across geographies

Historical context

The budget says Saskatchewan had the lowest unemployment rate among provinces in 2025, at 5.2 per cent against 6.8 per cent nationally, and that housing starts growth of 42.4 per cent was the highest among provinces.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

CMHC says the Saskatoon area's rental vacancy rate increased to 3.3 per cent from 2 per cent because lower immigration and weak youth employment reduced demand growth, while Regina's stayed at 2.7 per cent.

Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

What it influences

Historical context

The Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics reports that the population rose only slightly between April 2025 and April 2026, with net international migration of 3,951 and natural increase offset by net interprovincial migration of 4,275 out of the province, and that net international migration fell from a peak of 39,052 in April 2024.

Evidence: Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics: Quarterly Population Growth, First Quarter 2026

Historical context

Statistics Canada reports that Saskatchewan's population grew 1.0 per cent from July 2025 to July 2026. Its series, revised in September 2026 after the bureau's release, shows growth of 0.7% for the same April-to-April period the bureau describes, so most of the difference comes from the revision, not the period.

Evidence: Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canada's population estimates, second quarter 2026

Historical context

The province will invest 17.5 billion dollars in capital projects over four years.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Risks

Historical context

The budget says the current range of tariffs by the United States, India and China remains a downside risk, that tighter immigration policy could ripple through the labour supply and slow investment in housing, and that structural labour shortages will likely continue as baby boomers leave the workforce.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

The first-quarter report says higher oil prices improved the fiscal position, with WTI now forecast to average US$75.00 in 2026-27, and projects a deficit of 825 million dollars.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 First Quarter Financial Report

Historical context

It estimates that a US$1 per barrel change in the oil price moves oil revenue by 16 million dollars and a US$10 per tonne change in the potash price moves potash revenue by 54 million dollars.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

What to watch

The province's first-quarter report expects real GDP growth to rank third-best among provinces in 2026 and second-best in 2027 on the average of private-sector forecasts. These are the publishers' forecasts, not Northline's. The Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics' monthly review, Statistics Canada's population estimates and trade releases, and BHP's own updates on the Jansen mine show how the potash and investment story unfolds.

Fiscal position, investment and comparisons

How strong are Saskatchewan's public finances, what do its investment plans depend on, how exposed is its trade, and how does it differ from Alberta, Manitoba and the national picture?

Saskatchewan runs deficits on a small debt base with no equalization, plans one of the largest capital budgets in its history, with electricity the biggest item, ships most of its goods to the United States, and differs from Alberta and Manitoba in how much its public finances depend on commodity prices and on Ottawa

What happened

In Statistics Canada's government finance statistics for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, Saskatchewan's government had a net operating balance of -C$2.0 billion, or -9.3% of revenue, and grants from other governments were 17.2% of revenue. The unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026, against 6.7% for Canada. In 2025 the province sent 54% of its domestic goods exports to the United States.

The sections below take public finances, investment, trade and people in turn, and then set Saskatchewan beside Alberta, Manitoba and the national figures.

Why it happened

Public finances

Historical context

The province's first-quarter report forecasts total revenue of $21.7 billion and total expense of $22.6 billion for 2026-27, a projected deficit of $825 million, and says net debt will be 14.9 per cent of GDP at March 31, 2027, against 16.1 per cent projected at budget because of a stronger GDP outlook.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 First Quarter Financial Report

Historical context

The 2024-25 public accounts release says the province began that year with a budget deficit of $273 million and finished with an operating deficit of $249 million, and attributes a $1.3 billion rise in net debt to investment in schools, hospitals and roads.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan (Finance): Saskatchewan Finished 2024-25 Near Budget Forecast

Historical context

The Provincial Auditor's summary of those accounts puts net debt at 13.7 per cent of the economy at March 31, 2025, up from 13.1 per cent, with total public debt of $35.2 billion, and notes that the government has not posted an accumulated surplus since 2019. It also says around 4.6 cents of each revenue dollar went to interest on debt.

Evidence: Provincial Auditor of Saskatchewan: 2024-25 Public Accounts Audit at a Glance

Historical context

On revenue, the Auditor reports non-renewable resources provided $2.6 billion in 2024-25, individual and corporate taxes $4.8 billion, and that about 18% of revenue came from federal transfers.

Evidence: Provincial Auditor of Saskatchewan: 2024-25 Public Accounts Audit at a Glance

Historical context

Finance Canada's table shows Saskatchewan receiving no equalization in any year from 2017-18 to 2026-27 and $2.3 billion in major transfers (health and social transfers) in 2026-27.

Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Major federal transfers

Historical context

The budget says a US$1 per barrel change in the oil price moves oil revenue by $16 million and a US$10 per tonne change in the potash price moves potash revenue by $54 million, and that non-renewable resources revenue is 11.5 per cent of total expense, under a ceiling of 15 per cent the government calls prudent.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

The government reports that Moody's maintained Aa1, Morningstar DBRS AA (low) and S&P an AA rating, all with stable outlooks, and quotes S&P on the province's financial management. The rating agencies' own reports are not cited. The budget describes the credit rating as the strongest among provinces, while the public accounts release says second highest when the three agencies' ratings are combined; the two statements are not reconciled here.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan (Finance): Strong and Steady: Saskatchewan Maintains Top Provincial Credit Rating

Opinion

Taken together, these sources describe a province with a modest debt burden whose books swing with oil and potash prices rather than with transfers from Ottawa. That reading is the research desk's synthesis, not a finding of any one source.

Investment, projects and infrastructure

Historical context

The 2026-27 capital budget is $4.3 billion: nearly $1.8 billion across executive government and over $2.5 billion by the commercial Crown corporations, with $238.4 million for the Prince Albert Victoria Hospital and $100.0 million for Regina long-term-care beds.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan (SaskBuilds and Procurement): $4.3 Billion Capital Investment in 2026-27 Budget

Historical context

The Crown sector forecasts nearly $10.6 billion of capital over four years, and the budget site says SaskPower's share includes extending the life of coal-fired generation as a bridge to nuclear power and expanding transmission.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan (Budget 2026-27 website): Budget 2026-27: Infrastructure

Historical context

The province's September 2026 nuclear plan sets a goal of at least 2,600 MW by 2050, begins planning for two large reactors in the northwest with the first expected online by 2042, and selects the Rafferty site near Estevan for small modular reactor study. These are plans and goals; the sources cited here show no final investment decision.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Advances Nuclear Power to Support Long-Term Energy Security

Historical context

On private investment the budget says 59 large-scale projects with potential investment of $50.4 billion have been committed, and that growth in the potash volume forecast depends on the new Jansen mine beginning operations. Jansen's cost and schedule are not assessed here, and BHP's own statements are not cited. The budget website counts 60 projects with more than $60 billion, which differs from the budget document and is not reconciled here.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan; Government of Saskatchewan (Budget 2026-27 website): Budget 2026-27: Economy and Jobs

Why it matters

Historical context

The province's trade release says exports exceeded $43.7 billion in 2025 and that Saskatchewan ranks second among provinces for per capita exports.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Exports Remain Strong (State of Trade report release)

Historical context

The March 2026 budget says the 2025 export decline was concentrated in the United States (-$3.1 billion) and China (-$1.5 billion), that US tariffs have been milder than expected because CUSMA compliance of around 97 per cent holds the effective rate at 1.6 per cent, and that China lowered its duty on canola seed to 15 per cent from March 1, 2026.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

Statistics Canada counts 93.2 per cent of Saskatchewan's exporting establishments as selling to the United States in 2025, against 89.1 per cent in Alberta and 94.5 per cent in Manitoba. This counts firms, not export value.

Evidence: Statistics Canada: Table 1: Number of Canadian exporting establishments and the share that sold to the United States, by province, 2024 and 2025

Historical context

Statistics Canada reports that Saskatchewan had the largest decline in realized net farm income in 2025, -$1.0 billion, from lower crop receipts and higher operating expenses.

Evidence: Statistics Canada: Farm income, 2025 (The Daily)

In 2025 energy was 33% of Saskatchewan's domestic goods exports. The export data used here do not break the remainder down by commodity.

History

Real output at basic prices in Saskatchewan (chained 2017 dollars, Statistics Canada table 36-10-0711-01) was C$84.5 billion in 2025, a change of 14.6% over ten years. Over the same ten years goods-producing industries changed 7.6% and services-producing industries 17.7%; mining, quarrying and oil and gas changed 6.6%, manufacturing 20.2% and the public sector 24.5%. These are changes in real output, not in income or jobs, and the table gives no reason for the differences; the sourced paragraphs in this section and in the story give the explanations that named sources offer.

Real output by industry in Saskatchewan, indexed

Real GDP at basic prices, chained 2017 dollars, annual (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0711-01); first year shown = 100. Goods and services against the total, with mining and oil and gas, manufacturing and the public sector. Chained-dollar levels are not additive, so only changes are compared.

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Latest values: All industries 84,510,000,000 (2025); Goods-producing industries 34,470,000,000 (2025); Services-producing industries 49,050,000,000 (2025); Mining, quarrying and oil and gas 13,150,000,000 (2025); and 2 more in the data table.

Labour productivity, meaning real value added per hour worked in chained 2017 dollars (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0713-01), was C$77.10 an hour in Saskatchewan in 2025, ranking 2nd of 10 (highest = 1), a change of 7.7% over ten years. In goods-producing industries it was C$119.50 an hour (a change of 18.6% over ten years) and in services-producing industries C$60.80 an hour (a change of 3.8%). A high level can reflect capital-intensive industries such as oil, gas and mining rather than the efficiency of the whole economy, and the table says nothing about why levels or changes differ.

Labour productivity in Saskatchewan: goods and services

Real value added per hour worked, chained 2017 dollars, annual (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0713-01). Goods-producing industries include mining and oil and gas, so their level reflects capital-intensive resource extraction as well as manufacturing and construction.

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Latest values: All industries 77.1 (2025); Goods-producing industries 119.5 (2025); Services-producing industries 60.8 (2025).

The profile for this province reports the fiscal accounts for the year that began in April 2024. In that year liabilities were C$46.5 billion and net worth C$25.3 billion. The 2024-25 result and the 2026-27 forecast above are reported by the province and the Auditor; the Statistics Canada accounts here and those reports use different bases and are not combined.

Across geographies

On the labour market in October 2026, Saskatchewan's unemployment rate ranked 8th of 10 among the provinces (1st = highest), against joint 4th of 10 for Alberta and 10th of 10 for Manitoba; Alberta's rate was 7.3% and Manitoba's 5.0%. Average weekly earnings in August 2026 were C$1,303 a week in Saskatchewan, C$1,410 a week in Alberta and C$1,248 a week in Manitoba, ranked 5th of 10, 1st of 10 and 8th of 10; the national figure was C$1,355 a week.

On public finances, in Statistics Canada's accounts for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, grants from other governments were 17.2% of revenue in Saskatchewan, 14.3% in Alberta and 36.5% in Manitoba. The net operating balance was -9.3% of revenue in Saskatchewan, 8.5% in Alberta and -7.7% in Manitoba.

Historical context

Finance Canada's table shows no equalization for Saskatchewan or Alberta in 2026-27, while Manitoba receives $5,044 million in equalization of $7.8 billion in major transfers. This is the observed difference in transfer dependence; the federal formula's workings are not described in the sources cited.

Evidence: Department of Finance Canada: Major federal transfers

Historical context

Alberta's first-quarter update forecasts net debt of 7.7 per cent of GDP at year-end and a surplus in 2026-27 mainly from higher non-renewable resource revenue, a $11.4 billion swing from the budget.

Evidence: Government of Alberta (Treasury Board and Finance): 2026-27 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement

Historical context

Manitoba reports a summary deficit of $832 million and net debt of 36.4 per cent of GDP for 2025/26, and says real GDP grew 1.3 per cent in 2025, below Canada's average; Statistics Canada's revised series at basic prices, published on 5 November 2026, shows 1.6%.

Evidence: Government of Manitoba (Province of Manitoba): Annual Report and Public Accounts for the year ended March 31, 2026

Historical context

Manitoba's budget describes a diversified base of medium-sized sectors and says the fastest-growing provinces in 2025 and 2026 are oil-rich. The dates and definitions of these debt ratios differ (Saskatchewan's is a March 2027 projection, Alberta's a year-end forecast, Manitoba's a 2025/26 result), so only the ordering, not the gaps, should be read from them.

Evidence: Government of Manitoba (Manitoba Finance): Manitoba Budget 2026 (tabled 24 March 2026)

Opinion

The sources are consistent with Saskatchewan sitting between Alberta, whose finances respond most strongly to oil prices, and Manitoba, whose diversified economy relies on equalization and carries heavier debt. This is the desk's reading of the sources above; no source states it, and it is not a tested causal claim.

Exports differ in structure: in 2025, 54% of Saskatchewan's goods exports went to the United States, against 85% for Alberta and 66% for Manitoba, and energy products were 33%, 76% and 6% of each.

What it influences

Historical context

The budget says Saskatchewan's unemployment rate was the lowest among provinces in 2025 at 5.2 per cent, that wages grew 4.2 per cent and supported consumer spending, and that structural labour shortages will probably continue as baby boomers leave the workforce.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

The Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics reports net interprovincial migration of -4,275 over the year to April 2026, with Alberta the primary source of the movement. Over the latest four quarters in Statistics Canada's series, net interprovincial migration was -2,837 for Saskatchewan, 22 thousand for Alberta and -5,291 for Manitoba, and non-permanent residents changed by -849, -7,957 and -6,814.

Evidence: Saskatchewan Bureau of Statistics: Quarterly Population Growth, First Quarter 2026

Historical context

Manitoba reported an unprecedented 12-month net outflow of non-permanent residents of 10,489 people to September 2025, which it attributed to federal policy aimed at reducing their number; Statistics Canada's later revision shows a much smaller outflow for that period. The Saskatchewan sources cited here do not give the same attribution for Saskatchewan.

Evidence: Government of Manitoba (Manitoba Finance): Manitoba Budget 2026 (tabled 24 March 2026); Statistics Canada: The Daily: Canada's population estimates, second quarter 2026

Historical context

CMHC says Saskatoon's rental vacancy rate rose because lower immigration and weak youth employment reduced demand growth, while Regina's was 2.7 per cent.

Evidence: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: Rental Market Report 2025: major centres (web edition)

The wage gap with peers, productivity and GDP per capita are not explained by any source cited: for the three series, only the figures above are observed. Real output across all industries changed 11.0% between 2019 and 2025 in Saskatchewan, 11.9% in Alberta and 8.0% in Manitoba.

Risks

Historical context

The budget lists the current range of tariffs by the United States, India and China as a downside risk and says tighter immigration policy could slow housing investment through labour supply.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 Budget: Protecting Saskatchewan

Historical context

The quarterly report ties the improved fiscal outlook to higher-than-budgeted oil prices, which means the improvement can reverse if prices fall.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan, Ministry of Finance: 2026-27 First Quarter Financial Report

Opinion

Because the budget's own sensitivities and the Auditor's revenue split show resource revenue as a variable share of income, the deficit forecast is only as firm as the price assumptions. This is an interpretation; the source gives the sensitivities, not a probability.

What to watch

The Saskatchewan Budget 2027-28 and second-quarter report for revised price and deficit assumptions; the public accounts for 2025-26; the rating agencies' own reports; BHP's own Jansen updates; SaskPower's filings on the Rafferty site; and a Statistics Canada release of export values by province and partner for 2026.

Written profile

What do the data show about the Saskatchewan economy?

Saskatchewan's unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026, its prices were up 3.3% in the year to September 2026 and its government's net operating balance on Statistics Canada's basis was -9.3% of revenue in the fiscal year that began in April 2024, far larger than the deficit in the province's own audited accounts

Saskatchewan against the other nine

Saskatchewan has a low unemployment rate and, on Statistics Canada's accounts for 2024-25, a larger deficit relative to revenue than any province except British Columbia. The unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026, the third lowest of the ten provinces, up from 5.5% a year earlier. Employment changed by 1.0% from a year earlier, seventh of ten. Average weekly earnings rose 2.5% in the year to August 2026, the second-slowest growth of the ten provinces, while consumer prices rose 3.3% in the year to September 2026, so earnings lost purchasing power on average.

Employment growth over twelve months, by province. Nova Scotia 4.1%; Manitoba 2.2%; Prince Edward Island 1.9%; Newfoundland and Labrador 1.8%; Alberta 1.6%; New Brunswick 1.1%; Saskatchewan 1.0%; Ontario 0.3%.
The data behind this graphic
Employment growth over twelve months, by province
ItemValue
Nova Scotia4.1%
Manitoba2.2%
Prince Edward Island1.9%
Newfoundland and Labrador1.8%
Alberta1.6%
New Brunswick1.1%
Saskatchewan1.0%
Ontario0.3%
British Columbia0.0%
Quebec-2.3%

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The population grew 1.0% over the latest four quarters, level with New Brunswick and well behind Alberta's 1.5%. Net movement to and from other provinces was -2,837 persons over the period (negative is a net outflow) and non-permanent residents changed by -849. Over the latest twelve months housing starts were 5.0 per thousand residents, eighth of ten, which is modest beside Alberta's 9.7.

Three resource industries, not one

Saskatchewan is often grouped with Alberta as an energy province, and the data support only part of that. Energy products were 32.7% of the province's C$43.6 billion of domestic goods exports in 2025, against 76.1% for Alberta. The rest of the export base is made up of other resource and farm products: only 54.3% of Saskatchewan's goods went to the United States, the third-lowest share of the ten provinces, behind British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador. The province is less exposed to United States trade policy than Alberta or Ontario and more dependent on markets abroad whose conditions the data here do not describe.

Share of domestic goods exports sent to the United States. New Brunswick 90.4%; Alberta 85.4%; Prince Edward Island 80.0%; Quebec 71.7%; Ontario 71.5%; Nova Scotia 69.4%; Manitoba 65.9%; Saskatchewan 54.3%.
The data behind this graphic
Share of domestic goods exports sent to the United States
ItemValue
New Brunswick90.4%
Alberta85.4%
Prince Edward Island80.0%
Quebec71.7%
Ontario71.5%
Nova Scotia69.4%
Manitoba65.9%
Saskatchewan54.3%
British Columbia51.0%
Newfoundland and Labrador34.8%

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In 2025 agriculture employed 4.6% of Saskatchewan's workers, the highest share of any province and more than three times Alberta's 1.5%. Mining and oil and gas extraction employed 3.6%, the third-highest share, while the energy sector produced 15.8% of real output. On a rough scale, real output per worker in the mining and oil and gas industry is about 4.3 times the all-industry average, so a small share of the workforce produces a large share of output. The ratio divides two different surveys and is a scale, not a measure of productivity.

Output since 2019: farms and factories held up

Real output across all industries is 11.0% higher in 2025 than in 2019. Agriculture grew 11.2%, construction 13.6%, health care 24.9% and professional services 19.0%. Manufacturing grew 20.1%, one of only four provinces where factory output is higher than in 2019, and mining and oil and gas extraction grew 3.9%, the slowest of the broad groups shown. That growth since 2019 ranks seventh of the ten provinces; Ontario's output grew 12.3% over the same years.

Change in real output since 2019, Saskatchewan. Health care 24.9%; Manufacturing 20.1%; Professional services 19.0%; Construction 13.6%; Agriculture 11.2%; All industries 11.0%; Mining and oil and gas 3.9%.
The data behind this graphic
Change in real output since 2019, Saskatchewan
ItemValue
Health care24.9%
Manufacturing20.1%
Professional services19.0%
Construction13.6%
Agriculture11.2%
All industries11.0%
Mining and oil and gas3.9%

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The public accounts

In Statistics Canada's government finance statistics for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, the provincial government's net operating balance was -C$2.0 billion on revenues of C$22.0 billion, a balance equal to -9.3% of revenue (negative is a deficit), the second largest relative shortfall among the provinces after British Columbia, and a sharp contrast with Alberta's surplus. Liabilities were 2.12 times annual revenue, sixth of ten. Statistics Canada's basis differs from the province's own accounts, one year does not make a trend, and the data do not show how much of the fiscal result reflects commodity prices, capital spending or accounting treatment.

Historical context

The province's own audited accounts for the same year show an operating deficit of 249 million dollars, against the 273 million budgeted, much smaller than Statistics Canada's figure; for 2025-26 they show an operating deficit of 947 million dollars.

Evidence: Government of Saskatchewan (Finance): Saskatchewan Finished 2024-25 Near Budget Forecast; Government of Saskatchewan (Finance): Saskatchewan Releases Year End Financial Results (2025-26 Public Accounts, 30 June 2026)

Government net operating balance as a share of revenue. Alberta 8.5%; New Brunswick 4.1%; Nova Scotia 3.0%; Newfoundland and Labrador -3.3%; Manitoba -7.7%; Prince Edward Island -7.8%; Ontario -8.2%; Quebec -9.2%.
The data behind this graphic
Government net operating balance as a share of revenue
ItemValue
Alberta8.5%
New Brunswick4.1%
Nova Scotia3.0%
Newfoundland and Labrador-3.3%
Manitoba-7.7%
Prince Edward Island-7.8%
Ontario-8.2%
Quebec-9.2%
Saskatchewan-9.3%
British Columbia-16.5%

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What it means for decisions

Opinion

For a business, Saskatchewan offers a smaller market than Alberta, with slower population growth and real earnings that are falling, though the unemployment rate is low. Firms selling to agriculture, resource producers and the households around them are exposed to commodity prices and weather in ways that a national average hides. For a lender or investor, the notable fact is that a resource province shows one of the larger fiscal shortfalls in the country on this basis, though the province's own audited accounts show a much smaller deficit for the same year. For a household, low unemployment is the strength; pay that trails prices, slow job growth and net movement to other provinces are the weaknesses.

What the data cannot say: provincial totals hide the differences between Saskatoon, Regina and the north, the series do not include potash, uranium or grain prices that drive much of the export value, and the labour survey is a sample. Nothing here is a forecast.

Labour market and prices

The unemployment rate was 5.9% in October 2026, ranking 8th of 10 among the ten provinces (1st = highest). Employment changed by 1.0% over the year and the participation rate was 67.0%. Average weekly earnings were C$1,303 a week in August 2026, ranking 5th of 10. Consumer prices were up 3.3% in September 2026 on a year earlier, ranking 7th of 10.

Unemployment rate by province

Percent, seasonally adjusted, monthly. Province series, Labour Force Survey.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 5.9 (2026-10); British Columbia 6.3 (2026-10); Alberta 7.3 (2026-10); Manitoba 5 (2026-10); and 6 more in the data table.

People and output

The population was 1.0% higher than four quarters earlier. Net interprovincial migration over the latest four quarters was -2,837 persons (negative = net outflow), and non-permanent residents changed by -849. Real output across all industries changed 11.0% between 2019 and 2025. Retail sales in August 2026 were 6.4% higher than a year earlier.

Population by province, indexed

Quarterly estimates; start of period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 1,278,000 (2026 Q3); British Columbia 5,711,000 (2026 Q3); Alberta 5,101,000 (2026 Q3); Manitoba 1,517,000 (2026 Q3); and 6 more in the data table.

Real GDP by province, indexed

Annual, 2017 constant prices (not chained); start of the period = 100. Expenditure-based.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 90,590,000,000 (2025); British Columbia 356,100,000,000 (2025); Alberta 382,600,000,000 (2025); Manitoba 79,430,000,000 (2025); and 6 more in the data table.

Economic structure and trade exposure

In 2025 (the year of the table's latest annual average), health care and social assistance employed 16.6% of Saskatchewan's workers, retail trade 11.5%, construction 7.7% and public administration 6.6%. Among goods-producing groups, agriculture 4.6%; forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 3.8%; and manufacturing 4.8%. Finance and insurance employed 3.6% and professional, scientific and technical services 5.4%.

How much of each province’s employment is in one industry

Share of provincial employment, 2025 annual average (Labour Force Survey). A measured exposure to an industry, not an estimate of how much output or income depends on it. “Resources” combines forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas.

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Top values: Newfoundland and Labrador 6.37%; Alberta 5.58%; Saskatchewan 3.76%.

Domestic merchandise exports were C$43.6 billion in calendar year 2025. 54% went to the United States and energy products were 33% of the total; energy products sent to the United States were 29% of all the province's domestic exports. These are customs-basis goods exports assigned to the province of origin as Statistics Canada defines it; they exclude services, which are a large part of some provincial economies, and the province of export clearance can differ from the province of production for some commodities.

Where each province’s goods exports go, and what they are, 2025

Share of each province’s domestic merchandise exports (customs basis). A measured exposure of export value to one market or one commodity group, not an estimate of how much income or employment depends on it.

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Top values: New Brunswick 90.4%; Alberta 85.43%; Prince Edward Island 80.05%.

Employment shares and export shares describe the structure of the economy; they do not by themselves show which industries drive growth, incomes or public revenue, or how exposed the province is to a given shock.

Long-run perspective

Population is 31.6% higher on 1 July 2026 than on 1 January 1981, against 69.5% for Canada as a whole. Real GDP (at 2017 constant prices) is 132.7% higher in 2025 than in 1981; this is a level comparison between two years, not an average annual rate, and it is not compared with a national figure here because the national real GDP series is monthly and on a different basis.

Employment is 39.2% higher in October 2026 than in June 1993, the start of the national series used here (65.1% for Canada). Over the past forty years the unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4% (July 2014) to 12.2% (May 2020); it was 5.9% in October 2026, against 6.7% for Canada.

Employment by province, indexed

Seasonally adjusted; start of period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 624,600 (2026-10); British Columbia 2,941,000 (2026-10); Alberta 2,660,000 (2026-10); Manitoba 752,500 (2026-10); and 6 more in the data table.

Average weekly earnings, in current dollars and not seasonally adjusted, are 117.2% higher in August 2026 than in the same month twenty-five years earlier (106.8% for Canada). These are nominal figures: they include the effect of price increases over twenty-five years and are not a measure of the change in purchasing power.

These comparisons describe the size of changes between two dates. They do not say why this jurisdiction differs from Canada, and the end points can matter: a different starting year changes the percentage.

Public finances

In Statistics Canada's government finance statistics for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, the provincial government's revenue was C$22.0 billion and its expense C$24.0 billion, leaving a net operating balance of -C$2.0 billion (-9.3% of revenue). Grants received from other governments (mostly federal transfers; the table does not split them by payer) were C$3.8 billion, 17.2% of revenue. Liabilities at the end of the year were C$46.5 billion and net worth C$25.3 billion. These are past-year accounts, not the current budget.

What is not assessed

Why these figures differ from other provinces, industry structure beyond the latest employment shares, housing prices and rents, exports by destination over time, the current budget and credit ratings, major projects, and policy changes. This profile cites no source that explains Saskatchewan's position, and nothing here is a forecast.

1 · Where it ranks

Saskatchewan among the ten provinces

Same values as the Canada atlas layers. Rank 1 is the highest value, which is not always the most favourable outcome. A measure the source does not publish for a place is simply absent.

MeasureLatestPeriodRank (1 = highest)
Unemployment rate
%, seasonally adjusted, monthly
5.9%2026-108 of 10
Participation rate
%, seasonally adjusted
67.0%2026-102 of 10
Inflation (CPI)
% change, 12 months
3.3%2026-097 of 10
Population growth
% change over 4 quarters
1.0%2026 Q34 of 13 (tied)
Average weekly earnings
C$ per week
$1,3032026-088 of 13
Job vacancy rate
%, unadjusted
3.2%2026-086 of 13
Housing starts (12-month average, annual rate)
units, annual rate
6,4432026-098 of 10
Retail sales growth
% change, latest 12 months vs the 12 before
1.7%2026-0812 of 13
Manufacturing shipments growth
% change, latest 12 months vs the 12 before
10.6%2026-083 of 10
Building construction investment growth
% change, latest 12 months vs the 12 before
16.0%2026-085 of 13
Real GDP growth (annual)
% change, annual, chained 2017 dollars
3.8%20252 of 13
Average hourly wage rate
C$ per hour
$34.212026-105 of 10
Immigrants per 1,000 residents
persons per 1,000 residents, latest 4 quarters
11.32026 Q25 of 13 (tied)
Non-permanent residents, net change per 1,000
persons per 1,000 residents, latest 4 quarters
-0.72026 Q25 of 13
Net interprovincial migration per 1,000
persons per 1,000 residents, latest 4 quarters
-2.22026 Q211 of 13
Provincial government net operating balance
% of revenue, fiscal year beginning in April
-9.3%202412 of 13
Grants received from other governments
% of revenue, fiscal year beginning in April
17.2%202412 of 13

See Saskatchewan on the atlas → · Compare provinces →

2 · Labour market

Jobs, unemployment and wages

Saskatchewan is emphasised; the other provinces are shown for context. Click legend items to hide lines.

Unemployment rate by province

Percent, seasonally adjusted, monthly. Province series, Labour Force Survey.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 5.9 (2026-10); British Columbia 6.3 (2026-10); Alberta 7.3 (2026-10); Manitoba 5 (2026-10); and 6 more in the data table.

Employment by province, indexed

Seasonally adjusted; start of period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 624,600 (2026-10); British Columbia 2,941,000 (2026-10); Alberta 2,660,000 (2026-10); Manitoba 752,500 (2026-10); and 6 more in the data table.

Average hourly wage by province

Current dollars per hour, all industries, employees aged 15 and over, not seasonally adjusted.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 34.21 (2026-10); British Columbia 39.54 (2026-10); Alberta 39 (2026-10); Manitoba 32.46 (2026-10); and 6 more in the data table.

Average weekly earnings by province

Current dollars per week, industrial aggregate incl. overtime, not seasonally adjusted.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 1,303 (2026-08); British Columbia 1,366 (2026-08); Alberta 1,410 (2026-08); Manitoba 1,248 (2026-08); and 6 more in the data table.

3 · Prices

Inflation

12-month change in the all-items CPI, derived by this project from the index.

Consumer price inflation by province

12-month change in the all-items CPI (derived by this project from the index).

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 3.3 (2026-09); British Columbia 2.96 (2026-09); Alberta 3.6 (2026-09); Manitoba 4.36 (2026-09); and 6 more in the data table.

4 · People

Population and migration

Quarterly population estimates and four-quarter migration flows.

Population by province, indexed

Quarterly estimates; start of period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 1,278,000 (2026 Q3); British Columbia 5,711,000 (2026 Q3); Alberta 5,101,000 (2026 Q3); Manitoba 1,517,000 (2026 Q3); and 6 more in the data table.

Immigrants by province (4-quarter total)

New permanent residents arriving over the previous four quarters.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 14,390 (2026 Q2); British Columbia 45,800 (2026 Q2); Alberta 50,160 (2026 Q2); Manitoba 19,350 (2026 Q2); and 6 more in the data table.

Net interprovincial migration (4-quarter total)

In-migrants minus out-migrants over the previous four quarters (derived).

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 18,270 (2026 Q2); British Columbia 58,490 (2026 Q2); Alberta 78,320 (2026 Q2); Manitoba 14,610 (2026 Q2); and 6 more in the data table.

5 · Output and activity

GDP, retail, manufacturing, construction, housing starts

Annual real GDP and monthly activity indicators, indexed so the start of the period equals 100 where noted.

Real GDP by province, indexed

Annual, 2017 constant prices (not chained); start of the period = 100. Expenditure-based.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 90,590,000,000 (2025); British Columbia 356,100,000,000 (2025); Alberta 382,600,000,000 (2025); Manitoba 79,430,000,000 (2025); and 6 more in the data table.

Retail sales by province, indexed

Seasonally adjusted; start of period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 2,315,000,000 (2026-08); British Columbia 9,970,000,000 (2026-08); Alberta 9,649,000,000 (2026-08); Manitoba 2,530,000,000 (2026-08); and 6 more in the data table.

Manufacturing sales by province, indexed

Seasonally adjusted shipments; start of period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 2,300,000,000 (2026-08); British Columbia 6,093,000,000 (2026-08); Alberta 10,510,000,000 (2026-08); Manitoba 2,367,000,000 (2026-08); and 6 more in the data table.

Investment in new building construction by province, indexed

Current dollars, not seasonally adjusted, 12-month sum; start of the period = 100.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 3,138,000,000 (2026-08); British Columbia 26,550,000,000 (2026-08); Alberta 21,980,000,000 (2026-08); Manitoba 4,591,000,000 (2026-08); and 6 more in the data table.

Housing starts by province (12-month average)

Seasonally adjusted annual rate, averaged over 12 months (smoothed); units per year. CMHC data distributed by Statistics Canada.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 6,443 (2026-09); British Columbia 43,320 (2026-09); Alberta 49,530 (2026-09); Manitoba 8,790 (2026-09); and 6 more in the data table.

6 · Economic structure

Industry and export exposure

Latest shares only. A measured exposure, not an estimate of how much output or income depends on an industry.

IndustryShare of provincial employmentPeriod
World oil price (WTI)32.7%2025
Health care and social assistance16.6%2025
Construction7.7%2025
Professional, scientific and technical services5.4%2025
Manufacturing4.8%2025
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing4.7%2025
Agriculture4.6%2025
Transportation and warehousing4.4%2025
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas3.8%2025

Real output by industry in Saskatchewan, indexed

Real GDP at basic prices, chained 2017 dollars, annual (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0711-01); first year shown = 100. Goods and services against the total, with mining and oil and gas, manufacturing and the public sector. Chained-dollar levels are not additive, so only changes are compared.

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Latest values: All industries 84,510,000,000 (2025); Goods-producing industries 34,470,000,000 (2025); Services-producing industries 49,050,000,000 (2025); Mining, quarrying and oil and gas 13,150,000,000 (2025); and 2 more in the data table.

Labour productivity by province

Real value added per hour worked, all industries, chained 2017 dollars (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0713-01), annual. A level, not an index: it compares output per hour across provinces, and is high where capital-intensive industries such as oil and gas or mining weigh heavily in the economy.

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Latest values: Saskatchewan 77.1 (2025); Newfoundland and Labrador 72 (2025); Prince Edward Island 47.6 (2025); Nova Scotia 52.3 (2025); and 6 more in the data table.

Labour productivity in Saskatchewan: goods and services

Real value added per hour worked, chained 2017 dollars, annual (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0713-01). Goods-producing industries include mining and oil and gas, so their level reflects capital-intensive resource extraction as well as manufacturing and construction.

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Latest values: All industries 77.1 (2025); Goods-producing industries 119.5 (2025); Services-producing industries 60.8 (2025).

Change in real output by industry in each province, 2015 to 2025

Percent change in real GDP at basic prices (chained 2017 dollars, annual) over ten years. Each industry is compared with itself; chained-dollar levels are not additive, so shares of the total are not shown. A measure of the change in output, not of income or employment.

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Top values: Prince Edward Island 38.2%; British Columbia 32.5%; Nova Scotia 26.3%.

How much of each province’s employment is in one industry

Share of provincial employment, 2025 annual average (Labour Force Survey). A measured exposure to an industry, not an estimate of how much output or income depends on it. “Resources” combines forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying and oil and gas.

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Top values: Newfoundland and Labrador 6.37%; Alberta 5.58%; Saskatchewan 3.76%.

Where each province’s goods exports go, and what they are, 2025

Share of each province’s domestic merchandise exports (customs basis). A measured exposure of export value to one market or one commodity group, not an estimate of how much income or employment depends on it.

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Top values: New Brunswick 90.4%; Alberta 85.43%; Prince Edward Island 80.05%.

7 · Cities

Metropolitan areas in Saskatchewan

City pages use metropolitan data; this province page must not be read as any of them.

9 · Public finances

The provincial or territorial government's accounts

Statistics Canada government finance statistics (public-accounts basis), fiscal years ended 31 March. Annual, and about two years behind: past position, not this year's budget.

MeasureLatestFiscal year beginning in AprilYear before
RevenueC$22.0 billion2024C$22.2 billion
Grants received from other governments (part of revenue)C$3.8 billion2024C$3.6 billion
ExpenseC$24.0 billion2024C$22.8 billion
Net operating balance (revenue minus expense)−C$2.0 billion2024−C$0.7 billion
Liabilities (end of fiscal year)C$46.5 billion2024C$41.9 billion
Net worth (end of fiscal year; negative = liabilities exceed assets)C$25.3 billion2024C$30.3 billion

Computed: grants from other governments were 17.2% of revenue in the fiscal year that began in April 2024; the table does not say which government paid them, and most are federal transfers. Compare on the atlas →

Computed: the net operating balance was -9.3% of revenue in the fiscal year that began in April 2024. Compare on the atlas →

10 · Not assessed

What this profile does not cover

Listed so that silence is not mistaken for absence of an issue.