Quebec: provincial economy at a glance

What happened

Quebec's unemployment rate was 5.7% in October 2026, employment changed by -2.3% from a year earlier and the population by 0.2% from four quarters earlier. Real output across all industries changed 10.6% between 2019 and 2025.

Why it happened

Why it matters

History

Across geographies

In October 2026, Ontario's unemployment rate was 7.3%, above Quebec's 5.7%.

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The March 2026 budget expected real GDP growth of 1.1 per cent in 2026 and 1.4 per cent in 2027 and a 2026-27 accounting deficit of 6.3 billion dollars; the August pre-election report, in French, puts the 2026-27 deficit at 5.2 billion and keeps the return to balance by 2029-2030. The weak first-half data above sit against the budget's growth forecast. These are the province's forecasts, not Northline's.

Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey and the Institut de la statistique du Québec's monthly GDP (release calendar) show whether the gap is closing.

What happened

In Statistics Canada's government finance statistics, the Quebec government's net operating balance was -C$15.9 billion in the fiscal year that began in April 2024, -9.2% of its revenue of C$171.9 billion; its liabilities were C$495.5 billion. Grants from other governments were 17.9% of revenue. Quebec's unemployment rate was 5.7% in October 2026, and its population changed by 0.2% from four quarters earlier.

The sections below take four questions in turn: how the province pays its way, what it is building and what the building depends on, how exposed its exports are, and what is happening to its workforce. The comparison with Ontario, Alberta and New Brunswick follows.

Why it happened

Fiscal position

Labour, demographics, housing and migration

Quebec's job vacancy rate was 3.0% in August 2026, average weekly earnings C$1,297 a week in August 2026 and the average hourly wage rate, not seasonally adjusted, C$37.00 an hour in October 2026. No source cited here explains Quebec's wage or productivity level.

Why it matters

History

Real output at basic prices in Quebec (chained 2017 dollars, Statistics Canada table 36-10-0711-01) was C$453.7 billion in 2025, a change of 22.8% over ten years. Over the same ten years goods-producing industries changed 8.5% and services-producing industries 28.5%; mining, quarrying and oil and gas changed 25.2%, manufacturing 1.0% and the public sector 27.2%. These are changes in real output, not in income or jobs, and the table gives no reason for the differences; the sourced paragraphs in this section and in the story give the explanations that named sources offer.

Labour productivity, meaning real value added per hour worked in chained 2017 dollars (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0713-01), was C$60.50 an hour in Quebec in 2025, ranking 6th of 10 (highest = 1), a change of 9.0% over ten years. In goods-producing industries it was C$64.80 an hour (a change of -1.4% over ten years) and in services-producing industries C$59.30 an hour (a change of 13.0%). A high level can reflect capital-intensive industries such as oil, gas and mining rather than the efficiency of the whole economy, and the table says nothing about why levels or changes differ.

Across geographies

Peers differ from Quebec first in how they are financed.

Statistics Canada's accounts show a similar pattern. Grants from other governments were 17.9% of revenue in Quebec, 17.4% in Ontario, 14.3% in Alberta and 37.1% in New Brunswick, in the fiscal year that began in April 2024. The net operating balance was -9.2% of revenue in Quebec, -8.2% in Ontario, 8.5% in Alberta and 4.1% in New Brunswick.

Then the real economy. In October 2026, Quebec's unemployment rate was 5.7%, against 7.3% in Ontario, 7.3% in Alberta and 7.4% in New Brunswick, and 6.7% for Canada; Quebec ranks 9th of 10 among the ten provinces (1st = highest). Employment over twelve months changed -2.3% in Quebec, 0.3% in Ontario, 1.6% in Alberta and 1.1% in New Brunswick, and 0.1% nationally. Average weekly earnings rank 6th of 10 among the ten provinces. Population changed 0.2% in Quebec over four quarters, 0.3% in Ontario, 1.5% in Alberta and 1.0% in New Brunswick. Net interprovincial migration over four quarters was -7,084 persons for Quebec and 22 thousand for Alberta.

What it influences

Investment, infrastructure and what each depends on

Risks

Trade and tariffs

Domestic merchandise exports were C$117.6 billion in calendar 2025. 72% went to the United States, against 72% for Ontario, 85% for Alberta and 90% for New Brunswick. Energy products were 4% of Quebec's exports, against 76% for Alberta. These are customs-basis goods exports and exclude services.

What to watch

The next Quebec budget will show whether the path to balance by 2029-2030 holds; the Institut de la statistique du Québec and Statistics Canada release monthly output and labour data; Finance Canada's next Equalization renewal is due before March 31, 2029; Hydro-Québec's regulatory approvals and rate rules will show the pace of its build-out.

Not cited and so not described here: the public accounts beyond the 2024-25 deficit, gross debt, a revenue breakdown including resource royalties, the rating agencies' own reports, the full Quebec budget plan and pre-election report, Major Projects Office text on Quebec projects, a Quebec-only tariff exposure estimate and wage explanations.

Quebec against the other nine

Quebec's employment record over the past year is the weakest of the ten provinces. Employment changed by -2.3% from a year earlier, the largest decline of any province, and the unemployment rate was 5.7% in October 2026, up from 5.3% a year earlier, though still the second lowest of the ten. Average weekly earnings rose only 2.6% in the year to August 2026, among the four slowest of the ten provinces, while consumer prices rose 3.1% in the year to September 2026. Earnings that rise more slowly than prices lose purchasing power, even when the unemployment rate looks moderate.

The data behind this graphic

Employment growth over twelve months, by province

Item	Value
Nova Scotia	4.1%
Manitoba	2.2%
Prince Edward Island	1.9%
Newfoundland and Labrador	1.8%
Alberta	1.6%
New Brunswick	1.1%
Saskatchewan	1.0%
Ontario	0.3%
British Columbia	0.0%
Quebec	-2.3%

Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

The data behind this graphic

Growth in average weekly earnings over twelve months, by province

Item	Value
New Brunswick	6.5%
British Columbia	5.1%
Manitoba	4.9%
Ontario	4.0%
Alberta	3.9%
Nova Scotia	3.6%
Quebec	2.6%
Newfoundland and Labrador	2.6%
Saskatchewan	2.5%
Prince Edward Island	2.3%

Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

The Labour Force Survey is a sample, and a one-year change in a province's employment can reflect sampling variation as well as real change. The population picture points the same way: it grew 0.2% over four quarters, ninth of ten, non-permanent residents changed by -22 thousand and net movement to and from other provinces was -7,084 persons.

A larger factory sector than any other province

Manufacturing is 10.8% of Quebec's jobs, the highest share of the ten provinces, and 72% of the province's C$117.6 billion of goods exports in 2025 went to the United States. Real manufacturing output changed by -5.3% from 2019 to 2025. Output across all industries grew 10.6% over those years, less than Ontario's 12.3% and British Columbia's 16.2%, led by professional services (37.5%) and health care (20.9%).

The data behind this graphic

Change in real output since 2019, Quebec

Item	Value
Professional services	37.5%
Information and culture	23.5%
Health care	20.9%
Real estate	13.3%
Construction	12.0%
All industries	10.6%
Manufacturing	-5.3%

Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

On that measure Quebec's growth since 2019 ranks eighth of the ten provinces, ahead only of Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Public finances

In Statistics Canada's government finance statistics for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, the provincial government's net operating balance was -C$15.9 billion on revenues of C$171.9 billion, a balance equal to -9.2% of revenue (negative is a deficit) on Statistics Canada's basis. The definitions differ from the provincial budget's, and this is one year, so it describes where the accounts stood and not their direction.

What it means for decisions

What the data cannot say: they do not show why Quebec's employment fell more than other provinces' (survey noise, the end of the pandemic recovery, migration policy and trade are all candidates), they are provincial totals that hide large regional differences between Montréal, Québec City and the resource regions, and they carry no forecast.

Labour market and prices

The unemployment rate was 5.7% in October 2026, ranking 9th of 10 among the ten provinces (1st = highest). Employment changed by -2.3% over the year and the participation rate was 63.6%. Average weekly earnings were C$1,297 a week in August 2026, ranking 6th of 10. Consumer prices were up 3.1% in September 2026 on a year earlier, ranking 8th of 10.

People and output

The population was 0.2% higher than four quarters earlier. Net interprovincial migration over the latest four quarters was -7,084 persons (negative = net outflow), and non-permanent residents changed by -22 thousand. Real output across all industries changed 10.6% between 2019 and 2025. Retail sales in August 2026 were 2.2% higher than a year earlier.

Economic structure and trade exposure

In 2025 (the year of the table's latest annual average), health care and social assistance employed 14.6% of Quebec's workers, retail trade 10.8%, construction 7.0% and public administration 6.3%. Among goods-producing groups, agriculture 1.1%; forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 0.9%; and manufacturing 10.8%. Finance and insurance employed 4.9% and professional, scientific and technical services 8.3%.

Domestic merchandise exports were C$117.6 billion in calendar year 2025. 72% went to the United States and energy products were 4% of the total; energy products sent to the United States were 3% of all the province's domestic exports. These are customs-basis goods exports assigned to the province of origin as Statistics Canada defines it; they exclude services, which are a large part of some provincial economies, and the province of export clearance can differ from the province of production for some commodities.

Employment shares and export shares describe the structure of the economy; they do not by themselves show which industries drive growth, incomes or public revenue, or how exposed the province is to a given shock.

Long-run perspective

Population is 39.0% higher on 1 July 2026 than on 1 January 1981, against 69.5% for Canada as a whole. Real GDP (at 2017 constant prices) is 134.7% higher in 2025 than in 1981; this is a level comparison between two years, not an average annual rate, and it is not compared with a national figure here because the national real GDP series is monthly and on a different basis.

Employment is 50.1% higher in October 2026 than in June 1993, the start of the national series used here (65.1% for Canada). Over the past forty years the unemployment rate has ranged from 3.8% (November 2022) to 18.2% (April 2020); it was 5.7% in October 2026, against 6.7% for Canada.

Average weekly earnings, in current dollars and not seasonally adjusted, are 107.6% higher in August 2026 than in the same month twenty-five years earlier (106.8% for Canada). These are nominal figures: they include the effect of price increases over twenty-five years and are not a measure of the change in purchasing power.

These comparisons describe the size of changes between two dates. They do not say why this jurisdiction differs from Canada, and the end points can matter: a different starting year changes the percentage.

Public finances

In Statistics Canada's government finance statistics for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, the provincial government's revenue was C$171.9 billion and its expense C$187.8 billion, leaving a net operating balance of -C$15.9 billion (-9.2% of revenue). Grants received from other governments (mostly federal transfers; the table does not split them by payer) were C$30.7 billion, 17.9% of revenue. Liabilities at the end of the year were C$495.5 billion and net worth -C$44.3 billion. These are past-year accounts, not the current budget.

Quebec's metropolitan areas are covered on their own pages: Montréal, Québec City and Ottawa–Gatineau (Quebec part). Metropolitan figures are never substituted for provincial ones.

What is not assessed

Why these figures differ from other provinces, industry structure beyond the latest employment shares, housing prices and rents, exports by destination over time, the current budget and credit ratings, major projects, and policy changes. This profile cites no source that explains Quebec's position, and nothing here is a forecast.