Newfoundland and Labrador: provincial economy at a glance

What happened

Newfoundland and Labrador's unemployment rate was 8.7% in October 2026, employment changed by 1.8% from a year earlier and the population by 0.4% from four quarters earlier. Real GDP changed 1.8% from 2019 to 2025, and 7.7% from 2020, when the pandemic depressed output.

Why it happened

Why it matters

History

Across geographies

What it influences

Risks

What to watch

The province forecasts real GDP growth of 5.5 per cent in 2026, the highest of any province, driven by higher oil and mineral production, with employment up only 0.2 per cent and a population that stays steady. These are the province's forecasts, not Northline's. The province's monthly labour and population releases and the Canada Energy Regulator's production data (release calendar) show how much of the output gain reaches jobs.

What happened

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador closed 2025-26 with a deficit and projects another for 2026-27. In the Statistics Canada accounts for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, its net operating balance was -C$312 million, -3.3% of revenue.

Why it happened

Why it matters

History

Real output at basic prices in Newfoundland and Labrador (chained 2017 dollars, Statistics Canada table 36-10-0711-01) was C$30.9 billion in 2025, a change of 2.5% over ten years. Over the same ten years goods-producing industries changed -7.1% and services-producing industries 12.6%; mining, quarrying and oil and gas changed 31.1%, manufacturing -31.8% and the public sector 15.8%. These are changes in real output, not in income or jobs, and the table gives no reason for the differences; the sourced paragraphs in this section and in the story give the explanations that named sources offer.

Labour productivity, meaning real value added per hour worked in chained 2017 dollars (Statistics Canada table 36-10-0713-01), was C$72.00 an hour in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2025, ranking 3rd of 10 (highest = 1), a change of 2.1% over ten years. In goods-producing industries it was C$130.10 an hour (a change of 25.8% over ten years) and in services-producing industries C$57.10 an hour (a change of 0.5%). A high level can reflect capital-intensive industries such as oil, gas and mining rather than the efficiency of the whole economy, and the table says nothing about why levels or changes differ.

Across geographies

The three peers differ by how they earn resource money and how federal transfers treat them.

Unemployment in Newfoundland and Labrador was 8.7% in October 2026 (1st of 10 among provinces, highest first), against 6.2% in Nova Scotia, 5.9% in Saskatchewan and 7.3% in Alberta. Average weekly earnings were C$1,314 a week (4th of 10), against C$1,223 a week, C$1,303 a week and C$1,410 a week. The population changed 0.4% over four quarters in Newfoundland and Labrador, 0.8% in Nova Scotia, 1.0% in Saskatchewan and 1.5% in Alberta.

In the Statistics Canada accounts for the fiscal year that began in April 2024, net operating balance was -3.3% of revenue in Newfoundland and Labrador, 3.0% in Nova Scotia, -9.3% in Saskatchewan and 8.5% in Alberta. Grants from other governments were 25.5% of Newfoundland and Labrador's revenue, against 34.6% in Nova Scotia, 17.2% in Saskatchewan and 14.3% in Alberta.

What it influences

Risks

Domestic merchandise exports to the United States were 35% of the province's total in 2025, against 69% for Nova Scotia, 54% for Saskatchewan and 85% for Alberta. Energy was 54% of the province's exports, and energy sold to the United States 18%.

What to watch

The province's monthly labour releases, the Canada Energy Regulator's Bay du Nord and White Rose updates, Finance Canada's next Equalization determination, and any binding Churchill Falls and Gull Island agreement, which the province says would be referred to the Major Projects Office. These are the publishers' forecasts and plans, not Northline's.

Newfoundland and Labrador against the other nine

Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest unemployment rate and the lowest participation rate of the ten provinces, and it is the only province whose real output by industry is below its 2019 level. The unemployment rate is 8.7% against 10.2% a year earlier, the participation rate is 57.4%, and real GDP at market prices grew 1.8% from 2019 to 2025 (7.7% from 2020, when the pandemic depressed output), the slowest of the ten. Output across all industries, measured at basic prices, is -1.3% against 2019, the weakest of the ten; the two measures differ, and only the second is below its 2019 level.

The data behind this graphic

Unemployment rate, by province

Item	Value
Newfoundland and Labrador	8.7%
New Brunswick	7.4%
Prince Edward Island	7.4%
Alberta	7.3%
Ontario	7.3%
British Columbia	6.3%
Nova Scotia	6.2%
Saskatchewan	5.9%
Quebec	5.7%
Manitoba	5.0%

Download this graphic (SVG, with source)

The recent labour and spending figures are better than the output record. Employment changed by 1.8% from a year earlier, fourth of ten, and retail sales in August 2026 were up 8.1%, also fourth. Net movement to and from other provinces over the latest four quarters was 932 persons, a net inflow, and non-permanent residents changed by -560; the population grew 0.4% in the year to 1 July 2026. Average weekly earnings rose 2.6% in the twelve months to August 2026, eighth of ten, against price growth of 4.7% in the twelve months to September 2026, so average earnings lost purchasing power even as retail sales grew.

An energy exporter that sells less to the United States than any other province

In 2025 energy products were 53.6% of the province's C$13.7 billion of domestic goods exports, the second-highest share after Alberta, yet only 34.8% of goods exports went to the United States, the lowest share of any province. The energy sector produced 19.1% of real output and mining and oil and gas extraction employed 4.9% of workers, the second-highest share after Alberta. On a rough scale real output per worker in that industry is about 5.1 times the all-industry average, the largest ratio of any province, which means a small group of workers produces much of the province's measured output. The ratio divides two different surveys and is not a productivity measure.

The data behind this graphic

Energy in Newfoundland and Labrador, measured three ways

Item	Value
Share of goods exports	53.6%
Share of real output	19.1%
Share of employment	4.9%

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Where output fell and where it grew

The decline since 2019 is concentrated in a few industries. Manufacturing changed by -26.4% and construction by -26.4%, the weakest figures among the ten provinces for each. Mining and oil and gas extraction changed by -6.4%. Health care grew 27.3%, professional services 12.5% and agriculture 44.8%; agriculture employs only 0.4% of workers, so its rapid growth is a large percentage on a small base and cannot offset the losses elsewhere.

The data behind this graphic

Change in real output since 2019, Newfoundland and Labrador

Item	Value
Agriculture	44.8%
Health care	27.3%
Professional services	12.5%
All industries	-1.3%
Mining and oil and gas	-6.4%
Manufacturing	-26.4%
Construction	-26.4%

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In 2025 health care and social assistance employed 19.3% of workers, the highest share of any province, and retail trade 13.5%, also the highest.

The public accounts

On Statistics Canada's basis, in the fiscal year that began in April 2024 the government's net operating balance was -C$312 million on revenues of C$9.4 billion, a balance equal to -3.3% of revenue (negative is a deficit). Liabilities were 2.95 times revenue, the second-highest multiple of the ten provinces after Manitoba. Housing starts over the latest twelve months were 3.3 per thousand residents, the lowest rate of the ten provinces.

What it means for decisions

What the data cannot say: provincial totals hide differences between the St. John's area, Labrador and rural communities; the series do not show project-level investment or oil production volumes; and the labour survey is a sample. Nothing here is a forecast.

Labour market and prices

The unemployment rate was 8.7% in October 2026, ranking 1st of 10 among the ten provinces (1st = highest). Employment changed by 1.8% over the year and the participation rate was 57.4%. Average weekly earnings were C$1,314 a week in August 2026, ranking 4th of 10. Consumer prices were up 4.7% in September 2026 on a year earlier, ranking 4th of 10.

People and output

The population was 0.4% higher than four quarters earlier. Net interprovincial migration over the latest four quarters was 932 persons (negative = net outflow), and non-permanent residents changed by -560. Real GDP changed 7.7% from 2020, when the pandemic depressed output, to 2025, and 1.8% from 2019. Retail sales in August 2026 were 8.1% higher than a year earlier.

Economic structure and trade exposure

In 2025 (the year of the table's latest annual average), health care and social assistance employed 19.3% of Newfoundland and Labrador's workers, retail trade 13.5%, construction 7.4% and public administration 8.9%. Among goods-producing groups, agriculture 0.4%; forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas 6.4%; and manufacturing 3.9%. Finance and insurance employed 2.2% and professional, scientific and technical services 4.8%.

Domestic merchandise exports were C$13.7 billion in calendar year 2025. 35% went to the United States and energy products were 54% of the total; energy products sent to the United States were 18% of all the province's domestic exports. These are customs-basis goods exports assigned to the province of origin as Statistics Canada defines it; they exclude services, which are a large part of some provincial economies, and the province of export clearance can differ from the province of production for some commodities.

Employment shares and export shares describe the structure of the economy; they do not by themselves show which industries drive growth, incomes or public revenue, or how exposed the province is to a given shock.

Long-run perspective

Population is 3.7% lower on 1 July 2026 than on 1 January 1981, against a rise of 69.5% for Canada as a whole. Real GDP (at 2017 constant prices) is 120.3% higher in 2025 than in 1981; this is a level comparison between two years, not an average annual rate, and it is not compared with a national figure here because the national real GDP series is monthly and on a different basis.

Employment is 26.2% higher in October 2026 than in June 1993, the start of the national series used here (65.1% for Canada). Over the past forty years the unemployment rate has ranged from 8.2% (June 2026) to 22.1% (November 1992); it was 8.7% in October 2026, against 6.7% for Canada.

Average weekly earnings, in current dollars and not seasonally adjusted, are 121.5% higher in August 2026 than in the same month twenty-five years earlier (106.8% for Canada). These are nominal figures: they include the effect of price increases over twenty-five years and are not a measure of the change in purchasing power.

These comparisons describe the size of changes between two dates. They do not say why this jurisdiction differs from Canada, and the end points can matter: a different starting year changes the percentage.

Public finances

For the fiscal year that began in April 2024, on Statistics Canada's basis, the provincial government's revenue was C$9.4 billion and its expense C$9.7 billion, leaving a net operating balance of -C$312 million (-3.3% of revenue). Grants received from other governments (mostly federal transfers; the table does not split them by payer) were C$2.4 billion, 25.5% of revenue. Liabilities at the end of the year were C$27.7 billion and net worth C$9.1 billion. These are past-year accounts, not the current budget.

What is not assessed

Why these figures differ from other provinces, industry structure beyond the latest employment shares, housing prices and rents, exports by destination over time, the current budget and credit ratings, major projects, and policy changes. This profile cites no source that explains Newfoundland and Labrador's position, and nothing here is a forecast.