US yield curve slope: 10-year minus 2-year
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, in percentage points.
Daily (business days), delayed Observed 2026-11-05 · retrieved 2026-11-07 · Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15) · Not a live quote.
US yield curve slope: 10-year minus 2-year over time
Daily observations. Use the period buttons to change the range; the table beneath the chart lists the values.
US yield curve slope: 10-year minus 2-year
percentage points. Percentage points; below zero means the curve is inverted.
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Latest values: US yield curve slope: 10-year minus 2-year 0.38 (2026-11-05).
Quotation convention. Percentage points; below zero means the curve is inverted.
What this indicator is and why it is watched
What it measures
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield, in percentage points.
Why it is watched
The most-watched summary of the US yield curve's shape.
How it connects to the wider economy
Context, not a claim of cause.
An inverted US curve has preceded US recessions before, but not every inversion has been followed by one and timing has varied. It is a signal to monitor, not a forecast.
Northline describes relationships as documented mechanisms, statistical associations or hypotheses. Nothing on this page states that a movement in this indicator caused a movement in another.
How the data are produced
- Publisher
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.15)
- Dataset
- Federal Reserve statistical release H.15
- Frequency
- Daily
- Unit
- percentage points
- Observations
- 4,214 (long history)
- Retrieved
- 2026-11-07
- Series id
gl21_us_10y_minus_2y- Derived
- Computed by Northline from the published series named in the method note.
Derived by Northline from Federal Reserve H.15 yields (10-year minus 2-year, same day).
Adapted from Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Selected Interest Rates (H.15), Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis. Values unmodified; Treasury yields are Treasury-published constant-maturity estimates. and Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Selected Interest Rates (H.15), Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 2-year constant maturity, quoted on investment basis. Values unmodified; Treasury yields are Treasury-published constant-maturity estimates.
Licence conditions: attribution required.
Missing observations are left missing and are never interpolated. Statistical agencies can revise published values; the observation date and retrieval date above identify the version shown. Methodology and sources.
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