United States
GDP was US$30.77 trillion in 2025 (current US dollars). Real GDP grew 2.2% in 2025. GDP per capita at purchasing-power parity was $76,931 (constant 2021 international dollars, 2025).
What drives the US economy, and what does it mean for Canada?
The world’s largest economy at market exchange rates grew 2.2% in 2025 with the highest output per worker in the sample; its ten-year yield is 4.84% and inflation 3.7%
Structure and recent performance
The United States produced US$30.8 trillion in 2025 at market exchange rates, about 26% of the world total on the World Bank's aggregate. Real GDP grew 2.2% in 2025, 2.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2023. GDP per person at purchasing-power parity, $76,931, and output per worker, $156,983, rank 1st of 13 and 1st of 13 in the thirteen-economy sample. Services are 76.3% of GDP (2021) and manufacturing 10.5% (2021); trade is only 25.0% of GDP (2024), the lowest openness in the sample.
In 2026: CPI-U inflation is 3.7% (September 2026), unemployment 4.2%, payroll employment 0.3% higher than a year earlier and average hourly earnings 3.0% higher. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent in September, the two-year Treasury yield is 4.46% and the ten-year 4.84%.
On 28 October the Federal Reserve kept the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, with two members preferring an increase.
The Bank of Canada's October 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects US real GDP growth of 2.4 per cent in 2026 and 2.5 per cent in 2027. That is the Bank of Canada's projection, not an observation and not Northline's.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
On the indicators here the strengths are high income and productivity per person, a large domestic market that makes the economy less exposed to trade (25.0% of GDP), and energy self-sufficiency (net energy imports -9.8% of energy use). The vulnerabilities are fiscal and financial: central government debt of 115.8% of GDP and net lending/borrowing of -7.2% of GDP (2024; a negative number is borrowing) alongside a current account balance of -3.8% of GDP, and borrowing costs that have risen.
Connections to Canada
The United States took 72.3% of Canada's merchandise exports and supplied 45.9% of its imports in 2025. US ten-year yields are 1.17 percentage points above Canada's, and 12-month changes in US and Canadian ten-year yields have a correlation of 0.94. The tariff dispute described in the tariffs section is between the two governments. In 2025 provincial exposure ranged from 90% of New Brunswick's exports going to the United States to 35% of Newfoundland and Labrador's.
"The sample" in this profile means the twelve economies that have a profile here: the United States, China, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Australia. It is not a ranking of all countries, and each comparison uses the latest year available for each country, which can differ.
What the data say about United States
GDP was US$30.77 trillion in 2025 (current US dollars). Real GDP grew 2.2% in 2025. GDP per capita at purchasing-power parity was $76,931 (constant 2021 international dollars, 2025). Consumer price inflation averaged 2.9% in 2024. The modelled unemployment rate was 4.2% in 2025. Exports plus imports equalled 25% of GDP in 2024. Population was 341.8 million in 2025.
| Indicator | Latest | Year | Freshness | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (current US$) US$ (current) | 3.077e+13 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |
| GDP, PPP (constant 2021 international $) international $ (2021 PPP) | 2.629e+13 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD |
| GDP growth (annual %) % change, annual | 2.16 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG |
| GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) international $ (2021 PPP) | 76,931.31 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD |
| GDP per capita (current US$) US$ (current) | 90,026.52 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.CD |
| GDP per capita growth (annual %) % change, annual | 1.63 | 2025 | current | WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG |
| Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) % change, annual average | 2.95 | 2024 | current | WDI FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG |
| Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) % of labour force (modelled ILO estimate) | 4.2 | 2025 | current | WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS |
| Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate) % of population 15+ (modelled ILO estimate) | 61.7 | 2025 | current | WDI SL.TLF.CACT.ZS |
| Trade (% of GDP) % of GDP | 25.02 | 2024 | current | WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
| Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) % of GDP | 10.97 | 2024 | current | WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS |
| Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) % of GDP | 14.04 | 2024 | current | WDI NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) % of GDP | -3.83 | 2025 | current | WDI BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS |
| Gross capital formation (% of GDP) % of GDP | 21.53 | 2024 | current | WDI NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS |
| Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) % of GDP | 1 | 2025 | current | WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
| Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP) % of GDP | 10.53 | 2021 | current | WDI NV.IND.MANF.ZS |
| Services, value added (% of GDP) % of GDP | 76.26 | 2021 | current | WDI NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS |
| Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) % of GDP | 0.94 | 2021 | current | WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
| Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) % of GDP | 3.45 | 2023 | current | WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| GDP per person employed (constant 2021 PPP $) US$ (constant 2021 PPP) per person employed | 156,983.22 | 2025 | current | WDI SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD |
| Population, total persons | 3.418e+8 | 2025 | current | WDI SP.POP.TOTL |
| Population growth (annual %) % change, annual | 0.52 | 2025 | current | WDI SP.POP.GROW |
| Population ages 65 and above (% of total population) % of population | 18.39 | 2025 | current | WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
| Central government debt, total (% of GDP) % of GDP (central government) | 115.79 | 2024 | current | WDI GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
| Net lending (+) / net borrowing (-) (% of GDP) % of GDP (net lending/borrowing) | -7.19 | 2024 | current | WDI GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS |
| Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) kg of oil equivalent per capita | 6,453.63 | 2024 | current | WDI EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE |
| Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output) % of electricity output | 20.27 | 2021 | aging | WDI EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS |
| Energy imports, net (% of energy use) % of energy use (net imports) | -9.78 | 2024 | current | WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
| Net migration persons (5-year net, UN estimate) | 1.231e+6 | 2025 | current | WDI SM.POP.NETM |
| School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) % gross enrolment | 79.36 | 2022 | current | WDI SE.TER.ENRR |
United States against Canada and the world
Annual series, 1990 onward.
Charts load as you scroll.
Recorded links between United States and Canada
From the relationship graph, with each link’s evidence class.
- Bank of Canada staff report that Canadian long-term government bond yields tend to closely track movements in US Treasury yields. They say global forces heavily influence yields in a small open economy like Canada's, and that common shocks and similar monetary policy responses expose Canadian and US bonds to many of the same risks. A Bank of Canada explainer says interest rates in Canada respond to what happens elsewhere. This is about long-term yields; it does not say that US policy rates set Canadian policy rates. established mechanism details
- United States accounted for 72.33% of Canada's merchandise exports (customs basis, calendar 2025). documented exposure details
- United States accounted for 45.86% of Canada's merchandise imports (customs basis, calendar 2025). documented exposure details
- 34.81% of Newfoundland and Labrador's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 80.05% of Prince Edward Island's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 69.36% of Nova Scotia's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 90.4% of New Brunswick's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 71.69% of Quebec's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 71.55% of Ontario's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 65.91% of Manitoba's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 54.34% of Saskatchewan's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 85.43% of Alberta's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- 50.99% of British Columbia's domestic merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025 (customs basis). documented exposure details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the US federal funds effective rate and 12-month change in the US two-year Treasury yield (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.806 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.599 (n = 191); lag 6 months: r = 0.381 (n = 191); lag 12 months: r = -0.032 (n = 191). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the US federal funds effective rate and 12-month change in the Bank of Canada policy rate (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.934 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.836 (n = 191); lag 6 months: r = 0.642 (n = 191); lag 12 months: r = 0.15 (n = 191). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the US ten-year Treasury yield and 12-month change in the Government of Canada ten-year yield (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.935 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.69 (n = 188); lag 6 months: r = 0.491 (n = 185); lag 12 months: r = 0.036 (n = 179). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details
- Correlation of 12-month change in the US ten-year Treasury yield and 12-month change in the euro area AAA ten-year yield (percentage points): lag 0 months: r = 0.79 (n = 191); lag 3 months: r = 0.652 (n = 188); lag 6 months: r = 0.504 (n = 185); lag 12 months: r = 0.135 (n = 179). All four pre-specified lags are shown. This is an observed association, not a causal estimate. observed correlation details